Match Analysis: Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 12:15 AM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

Heavyweight MMA bout between Jhonata Diniz (9-1) and Mario Pinto (10-0) featuring two orthodox fighters of similar height and reach with contrasting striking accuracy and defense.

Key Factors to Consider

• Diniz has a strong 9-1 record with solid striking volume and defensive efficiency, landing 4.58 significant strikes per minute at 56% accuracy and defending 59% of incoming strikes. Pinto is undefeated at 10-0 with lower volume (3.67 strikes per minute) but much higher accuracy (71%), though he allows a higher rate of significant strikes against him (5.29 per minute) and a lower defensive rate of 51%. Pinto’s youth and perfect record indicate momentum, but Diniz’s defensive skill and experience suggest a tougher challenge than Pinto has faced to date.
• No direct history between Diniz and Pinto, making this a stylistic matchup based on striking efficiency and defense.
• No reported injuries or recent layoffs for either fighter, suggesting both are entering in peak condition.
• Fight at home for Diniz in Brazil could boost motivation and crowd energy, potentially influencing close moments. Both fighters have Orthodox stance and equal reach (79 inches).
• Diniz at 34 aiming to solidify status with a big win over an undefeated rising star. Pinto at 27 motivated to maintain perfect record and prove dominance at heavyweight.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jhonata Diniz: -135, Mario Pinto: +114	Jhonata Diniz	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Jhonata Diniz -3.5: +110, Mario Pinto +3.5: -150	Jhonata Diniz -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -250, Under 1.5: +190	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jhonata Diniz 3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 103%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 103% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 54.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Jhonata Diniz to win. Spread: Jhonata Diniz -3.5. Over/Under: Under 1.5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Jhonata Diniz wins by KO/TKO in round 2

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – October 11, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto Prediction	Under 1.5	190	103%
Julia Polastri vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz Prediction	Over 2.5	-445	56%
Thomas Petersen vs. Vitor Petrino Prediction	Under 1.5	154	52%

Combined Odds: +802 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $180.43

Match Analysis: Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-28
• Time: 10:30 PM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

This UFC heavyweight bout at UFC 317 features experienced UFC fighter Jhonata Diniz (8-1 overall, 2-1 UFC) facing newcomer Alvin Hines (7-0 overall, 0-0 UFC). Diniz is known for his striking skills and fast hands but has shown vulnerabilities against grapplers. Hines, while undefeated, is less experienced at UFC level and is considered a developing heavyweight prospect with solid wrestling and a willingness to stand and strike. The fight is expected to test Hines' ability to handle a more polished and faster UFC striker, while Diniz seeks a rebound win after a loss to a grappler. The bout is set to be a high-intensity heavyweight confrontation with striking exchanges likely to feature prominently.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jhonata Diniz has demonstrated solid striking and a strong start in UFC bouts with two wins, though he has struggled on the ground against top grapplers. Alvin Hines is unbeaten at the regional level, showing promise with balanced striking and wrestling but has yet to face UFC competition.
• This is the first meeting between Jhonata Diniz and Alvin Hines with no prior head-to-head history.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout.
• The fight takes place at UFC 317 in Las Vegas, with Diniz having undergone multiple opponent changes this year and not having competed yet in 2025, which may affect ring readiness. Hines enters as a short-notice opponent, which may impact his conditioning and game plan.
• Diniz looks motivated to secure a quick rebound win after a stoppage loss in his last bout and to solidify his standing in the heavyweight UFC ranks. Hines is highly motivated to make a successful UFC debut and maintain his undefeated record, eager to prove himself on a big stage.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alvin Hines: +260, Jhonata Diniz: -325	Jhonata Diniz to win	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Alvin Hines +3.5: 165, Jhonata Diniz -3.5: -225	Jhonata Diniz to win by more than 3.5 points	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -115, Under 1.5 rounds: -115	Under 1.5 rounds (fight ends early)	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jhonata Diniz -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jhonata Diniz is favored to win by a first-round knockout due to his superior striking speed and UFC experience. Alvin Hines poses a test with his wrestling and toughness but is expected to be outmatched by Diniz's level of competition and skill set.

Predicted Score: Jhonata Diniz wins by KO in round 1