Match Analysis: Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: October 11, 2025
• Time: 12:15 AM UTC
• Location: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto is a heavyweight match at UFC Fight Night 261. Diniz is fighting on home soil in Brazil, while Pinto is a British-Portuguese fighter. The match is part of the main card.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jhonata Diniz is favored due to his performance on home soil. Mario Pinto has a strong debut but faces a tough opponent.
• No previous head-to-head fights.
• No reported injuries.
• Diniz's home advantage and Pinto's sessions with Tom Aspinall are significant factors.
• Pinto is motivated after a strong debut, while Diniz seeks to impress on home soil.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-135 (Jhonata Diniz) vs. 114 (Mario Pinto)	Jhonata Diniz	★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread	-3.5 110 (Jhonata Diniz) vs. 3.5 -150 (Mario Pinto)	Jhonata Diniz covers the spread	★★★☆☆ 50%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -250, Under 1.5: 190	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jhonata Diniz -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -16%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jhonata Diniz at -4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jhonata Diniz is likely to win, given his home advantage and current odds.

Predicted Score: Jhonata Diniz to win by decision or TKO in Round 2.

Match Analysis: Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-28
• Time: 10:30 PM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

The heavyweight bout between Jhonata Diniz and Alvin Hines at UFC 317 features a UFC veteran and a promising newcomer. Diniz, with an 8-1 record including 2-1 in the UFC, is known for his striking speed and knockout power but has struggled against grapplers. Hines is undefeated at 7-0, though new to the UFC, with solid wrestling and striking but some stamina concerns. The fight is expected to test Diniz's experience against Hines' raw potential, with a likely fast-paced striking battle.

Key Factors to Consider

• Diniz has demonstrated consistent power and fast hands, winning most fights via knockout, but has shown vulnerabilities against grapplers like Marcin Tybura. Hines, undefeated at 7-0 on the regional scene, has improved steadily and possesses decent wrestling and striking but is considered raw at the UFC level.
• There are no prior head-to-head meetings between Diniz and Hines, making this their first encounter in the octagon.
• There is no publicly available information indicating any current injuries for either fighter ahead of this bout.
• The fight takes place at UFC 317 in Las Vegas, with Diniz having had an unsettled 2025 season with multiple opponent changes and no fights yet, while Hines is a short-notice newcomer. The arena and event size may increase pressure on both fighters.
• Diniz is motivated to bounce back after an unsuccessful attempt to break into UFC heavyweight rankings, looking to prove himself after opponent changes. Hines is motivated to make a strong UFC debut and extend his undefeated streak, eager to show he belongs at the elite level.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jhonata Diniz: -325, Alvin Hines: 260	Jhonata Diniz	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Jhonata Diniz -3.5: -225, Alvin Hines +3.5: 165	Jhonata Diniz by more than 3.5 points (rounds/finish dominance implied)	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -115, Under 1.5 rounds: -115	Under 1.5 rounds (early finish expected)	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jhonata Diniz -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 22%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jhonata Diniz is favored to win, likely by first-round knockout, leveraging his striking experience and power advantage over the less experienced but tough Alvin Hines.

Predicted Score: Jhonata Diniz wins via KO/TKO in Round 1