Match Analysis: Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 10:30 PM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Game Overview
This UFC heavyweight bout at UFC 317 features experienced UFC fighter Jhonata Diniz (8-1 overall, 2-1 UFC) facing newcomer Alvin Hines (7-0 overall, 0-0 UFC). Diniz is known for his striking skills and fast hands but has shown vulnerabilities against grapplers. Hines, while undefeated, is less experienced at UFC level and is considered a developing heavyweight prospect with solid wrestling and a willingness to stand and strike. The fight is expected to test Hines' ability to handle a more polished and faster UFC striker, while Diniz seeks a rebound win after a loss to a grappler. The bout is set to be a high-intensity heavyweight confrontation with striking exchanges likely to feature prominently.
Key Factors to Consider
- Jhonata Diniz has demonstrated solid striking and a strong start in UFC bouts with two wins, though he has struggled on the ground against top grapplers. Alvin Hines is unbeaten at the regional level, showing promise with balanced striking and wrestling but has yet to face UFC competition.
- This is the first meeting between Jhonata Diniz and Alvin Hines with no prior head-to-head history.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout.
- The fight takes place at UFC 317 in Las Vegas, with Diniz having undergone multiple opponent changes this year and not having competed yet in 2025, which may affect ring readiness. Hines enters as a short-notice opponent, which may impact his conditioning and game plan.
- Diniz looks motivated to secure a quick rebound win after a stoppage loss in his last bout and to solidify his standing in the heavyweight UFC ranks. Hines is highly motivated to make a successful UFC debut and maintain his undefeated record, eager to prove himself on a big stage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alvin Hines: +260, Jhonata Diniz: -325 | Jhonata Diniz to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Alvin Hines +3.5: 165, Jhonata Diniz -3.5: -225 | Jhonata Diniz to win by more than 3.5 points | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: -115, Under 1.5 rounds: -115 | Under 1.5 rounds (fight ends early) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jhonata Diniz -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jhonata Diniz is favored to win by a first-round knockout due to his superior striking speed and UFC experience. Alvin Hines poses a test with his wrestling and toughness but is expected to be outmatched by Diniz's level of competition and skill set.
Predicted Score: Jhonata Diniz wins by KO in round 1