Match Analysis: Jesus Santos Aguilar vs Luis Gurule – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 9:15 PM UTC
- Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio
Game Overview
Flyweight bout between aggressive striker Jesus Santos Aguilar and technically skilled wrestler Luis Gurule.
Key Factors to Consider
- Aguilar is known for forward pressure striking and KO power but has a weaker takedown defense. Gurule boasts strong wrestling skills and comparable striking, making him a balanced and resilient fighter.
- No recorded previous meetings between Aguilar and Gurule, making this a fresh matchup with no direct H2H data.
- No reported recent injuries for either fighter, both appear healthy and fight-ready.
- Fight is at a neutral venue with no significant altitude or climate issues. Both fighters are performing in their prime age range.
- Gurule (10-1) motivated to maintain near-perfect record; Aguilar (11-3) looking to rebound and prove knockout resilience after previous hard fight.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jesus Santos Aguilar: +170, Luis Gurule: -205 | Luis Gurule | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Spread | Jesus Santos Aguilar +3.5: -125, Luis Gurule -3.5: -105 | Luis Gurule -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -166, Under 2.5 rounds: +130 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Luis Gurule -11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Luis Gurule to win by decision
Predicted Score: Luis Gurule wins via decision (3 rounds)