Match Analysis: Jesus Pinedo vs Movlid Khaybulaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-01
• Time: 10:30 PM UTC
• Location: Undisclosed (PFL World Tournament Finals Venue)

Game Overview

Jesus Pinedo vs Movlid Khaybulaev is a highly competitive PFL lightweight final scheduled for August 1, 2025. Both fighters are near career peak, with contrasting styles: Pinedo is aggressive with strong finishing power, while Khaybulaev has precise striking and a more methodical pace. Odds open with Pinedo as a slight favorite but market movement shows some uncertainty.

Key Factors to Consider

• Pinedo has been on a hot streak with several recent finishes, leveraging aggressive striking and wrestling. Khaybulaev has consistently outpointed opponents using technical striking and solid grappling defense, staying undefeated in recent bouts. Both show excellent conditioning and well-rounded skills.
• No prior head-to-head meetings, so tactical matchup largely speculative. Pinedo's aggression could test Khaybulaev's composure and counter-striking.
• No reported major injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, both expected to be at full strength.
• Event is a PFL final, so motivation and stakes are extremely high for both. Fighting on neutral ground reduces home advantage bias.
• Both fighters motivated by massive PFL title and prize, likely to bring their best performances. Slight edge to Khaybulaev for maintaining an undefeated 2025 run, enhancing confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jesus Pinedo: -165, Movlid Khaybulaev: +135	Movlid Khaybulaev	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Movlid Khaybulaev -1.5: +200, Jesus Pinedo +1.5: -250	Jesus Pinedo +1.5 (spread)	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Movlid Khaybulaev 36%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Movlid Khaybulaev at 36% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Movlid Khaybulaev to win via decision

Predicted Score: Movlid Khaybulaev wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Jesus Pinedo vs Gabriel Alves Braga – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: June 12, 2025
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Nashville Municipal Auditorium

Game Overview

This is a featherweight semifinal match in the PFL 2025 World Tournament between Jesus Pinedo, the 2023 PFL Featherweight Champion, and Gabriel Alves Braga. Both fighters have a history of competing against each other, currently standing at 1-1.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jesus Pinedo is 25-6-1 in his career, with a recent win over Borch by first-round KO. Gabriel Alves Braga is 17-2, having beaten his last opponent by first-round submission.
• The two fighters are 1-1 against each other, with Pinedo winning by third-round TKO in their most recent matchup for the title.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The match is part of the PFL tournament format, which could lead to increased motivation for both fighters to progress.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to win and advance in the tournament.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gabriel Alves Braga: 175, Jesus Pinedo: -215	Jesus Pinedo	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jesus Pinedo -12%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jesus Pinedo at -12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jesus Pinedo is favored to win based on his recent performances and the fact that he holds a title win over Braga.

Predicted Score: Jesus Pinedo to win by decision or TKO

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Jesus Pinedo vs. Gabriel Alves Braga Prediction	Jesus Pinedo Win	-215	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)
Mukhamed Berkhamov vs. Kendly St. Louis Prediction	Mukhamed Berkhamov Win	-260	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)
Jason Jackson vs. Thad Jean Prediction	Over 2.5 rounds	2.5	★★★☆☆ 65% (65%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +108

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $41.59

Match Analysis: Jesus Pinedo vs Adam Borics – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-04
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: Orlando, FL

Game Overview

Adam Borics faces Jesus Pinedo in the PFL World Tournament. Borics, known for his resilience, seeks a strong start in the revamped tournament format, while Pinedo aims to overcome past weight issues.

Key Factors to Consider

• Adam Borics has a solid record with less recent activity due to injury, while Jesus Pinedo has shown inconsistency with weight issues impacting his fights.
• There is no previous head-to-head matchup between Adam Borics and Jesus Pinedo.
• Adam Borics was previously out with an ankle fracture, but has since recovered. Jesus Pinedo's recent issues have been with making weight rather than injuries.
• The PFL's new tournament format and prize structure could affect fighter strategies, though Borics is focused on a straightforward 'win or go home' approach.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Borics seeking redemption after injury and Pinedo looking to prove himself after past setbacks.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Adam Borics: 150, Jesus Pinedo: -192	Adam Borics	★★☆☆☆ 45%

Predicted Outcome

Adam Borics

Predicted Score: Borics via Decision