Match Analysis: Jesus Pinedo vs Movlid Khaybulaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-01
• Time: 10:30 PM UTC
• Location: Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey

Game Overview

The 2025 PFL World Featherweight Title bout features former 2023 PFL Featherweight Champion Jesus Pinedo versus undefeated 2021 PFL Featherweight Champion Movlid Khaybulaev. Both fighters are elite featherweights with contrasting styles: Pinedo is an aggressive striker known for finishing fights with powerful knockouts, while Khaybulaev employs dominant Dagestani wrestling to control and outgrapple opponents. The bout is set for five rounds and will decide the divisional supremacy and tournament champion.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jesus Pinedo holds a professional record of 25-6-1 with a recent finishing streak characterized by explosive striking and knockout power. Movlid Khaybulaev is unbeaten at 23-0-1 (1 NC), renowned for his smothering wrestling style and relentless ground control that neutralizes opponents effectively.
• Pinedo and Khaybulaev have not fought previously, making this a highly anticipated first-time encounter between two former PFL featherweight champions with contrasting skill sets.
• No reported injuries were found for either fighter ahead of the bout, indicating both should be at full health on fight night.
• The fight takes place at the prestigious Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall as part of the PFL World Tournament Finals, with significant prize money and divisional prestige on the line. This high-stakes environment may affect fighter motivation and strategy.
• Pinedo is motivated to reclaim the featherweight crown after winning in 2023 and is coming off a strong run of finishes. Khaybulaev is driven to maintain his undefeated status and prove his dominance with a second PFL tournament title.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jesus Pinedo: -165, Movlid Khaybulaev: 135	Jesus Pinedo	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Jesus Pinedo: -1.5, Movlid Khaybulaev: +1.5	Jesus Pinedo to win by more than 1.5 rounds (i.e., clear win)	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over_3.5_rounds: -110, under_3.5_rounds: -110	Over 3.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jesus Pinedo -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jesus Pinedo at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Pinedo's heavy striking style versus Khaybulaev’s grappling dominance, the fight likely hinges on whether Pinedo can avoid takedowns to utilize his knockout power. The betting favorite and more probable winner is Jesus Pinedo at -165 odds, with Khaybulaev as underdog at +135. The prediction favors Pinedo winning via knockout or decision by outstriking, but Khaybulaev’s grappling could drag the fight to a decision or submission if Pinedo fails to keep it standing.

Predicted Score: Jesus Pinedo wins by unanimous decision or knockout in round 3 or 4

Match Analysis: Jesus Pinedo vs Gabriel Alves Braga – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-12
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Nashville Municipal Auditorium, Nashville, Tennessee

Game Overview

Featherweight semifinal match for the 2025 PFL World Tournament. Jesus Pinedo (age 28, record 25-6-1, reigning 2023 PFL champ) faces Gabriel Alves Braga (age 26/27, record 17-2). This is their third meeting; previous bouts were split 1-1, with Braga winning a split decision in April 2023 and Pinedo winning by third-round TKO in November 2023 en route to his championship. Both have shown strong recent form, dispatching recent opponents quickly[1][4][5].

Key Factors to Consider

• Pinedo is the more experienced and credentialed fighter (2023 PFL champion), with 25 wins, 15 by KO/TKO, strong striking, and a proven ability to finish fights. Braga is a rising contender with 17 wins (7 by KO/TKO), solid grappling, and a recent record of quick finishes[4]. Both have shown resilience and adaptability.
• Direct record is 1-1: Braga won a split decision in April 2023, Pinedo won by third-round TKO in November 2023 for the title[1][4]. Both have competitive styles; Pinedo has the edge in KO power, while Braga has shown strong grappling and decision victories.
• No public reports of significant injuries affecting either fighter.
• Fight is at featherweight (145 lbs), both made weight comfortably. Event is a semifinal for a prestigious PFL tournament, increasing pressure and stakes[3][5].
• High—winner advances to the PFL featherweight finals and a possible $1 million prize. Both fighters have proven to rise to the occasion in high-stakes bouts.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -215, away: 175	Jesus Pinedo	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jesus Pinedo -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jesus Pinedo at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jesus Pinedo is favored due to championship experience, proven KO power, and a slight edge in recent head-to-head, but Gabriel Alves Braga is a live underdog with excellent grappling and versatility. Expect a closely contested fight with Pinedo’s power and experience likely to be decisive.

Predicted Score: Jesus Pinedo wins by KO/TKO in rounds 2 or 3

Match Analysis: Jesus Pinedo vs Adam Borics – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-04
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: Orlando, FL

Game Overview

Adam Borics faces Jesus Pinedo in the PFL World Tournament. Borics, known for his resilience, seeks a strong start in the revamped tournament format, while Pinedo aims to overcome past weight issues.

Key Factors to Consider

• Adam Borics has a solid record with less recent activity due to injury, while Jesus Pinedo has shown inconsistency with weight issues impacting his fights.
• There is no previous head-to-head matchup between Adam Borics and Jesus Pinedo.
• Adam Borics was previously out with an ankle fracture, but has since recovered. Jesus Pinedo's recent issues have been with making weight rather than injuries.
• The PFL's new tournament format and prize structure could affect fighter strategies, though Borics is focused on a straightforward 'win or go home' approach.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Borics seeking redemption after injury and Pinedo looking to prove himself after past setbacks.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Adam Borics: 150, Jesus Pinedo: -192	Adam Borics	★★☆☆☆ 45%

Predicted Outcome

Adam Borics

Predicted Score: Borics via Decision