Match Analysis: Mariya Agapova vs Jessica Eye – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-21
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Dickies Arena, Wichita, Kansas, USA
Game Overview
The fight between Mariya Agapova and Jessica Eye is a bare-knuckle boxing debut for both, scheduled for BKFC 76 at Dickies Arena on June 21, 2025. Both fighters are former UFC veterans transitioning from MMA to bare-knuckle boxing. Eye brings extensive MMA experience with a record of 15-11, known for her striking and well-rounded skills, while Agapova, with a record of 10-5, is recognized for her aggressive fighting style. Neither has prior bare-knuckle experience, so their adaptation to this different striking-focused combat sport will be critical.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both fighters have not competed with any teams in bare-knuckle boxing previously. Jessica Eye fought out of Strong Style Fight Team and Xtreme Couture MMA, bringing high-level striking and fight IQ. Agapova has shown strong aggression and finishing ability in MMA but this is untested in BKFC rules.
- There are no prior direct fights or bare-knuckle bouts between Eye and Agapova. Both come from similar competitive backgrounds in the UFC but have not met in competition previously.
- No publicly reported recent injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout. Both appear to be in good health preparing for their bare-knuckle debut.
- The fight marks a major transition for both athletes after Eye retired from MMA in 2022. The shift to bare-knuckle boxing requires adaptation in technique and strategy due to no gloves and no grappling allowed. The venue, Dickies Arena, and the promotional hype around BKFC 76 add pressure and motivation.
- Jessica Eye enters with motivation to establish herself in bare-knuckle boxing after a distinguished MMA career. Mariya Agapova aims to prove her aggressive style translates well to BKFC. Both fighters seek validation in a new combat sport, which might influence their approach to risk and pace.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jessica Eye: -115, Mariya Agapova: -125 | Mariya Agapova to win | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Spread | Jessica Eye: +1.5, Mariya Agapova: -1.5 | Mariya Agapova -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 53% |
| Over/under | over: -120, under: +100 | Under 3.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mariya Agapova -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Mariya Agapova at -6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the experience and fight IQ Jessica Eye possesses combined with her measured striking style, she is favored to edge out Mariya Agapova, who may have success early with aggression but risks stamina and defense in this new format.
Predicted Score: Agapova wins by decision or late stoppage in round 3