Jeremiah Wells vs. Themba Gorimbo Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Jeremiah Wells vs Themba Gorimbo – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-02
  • Time: 12:45 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

Jeremiah Wells (12-4-1) faces Themba Gorimbo (14-5-0) at UFC Apex. Wells is a switch fighter with balanced striking and grappling, while Gorimbo is an orthodox striker with a reach advantage and higher striking accuracy. Wells has recent neck injury concerns but aims to return to form. Gorimbo holds the betting favorite status with better striking metrics and slightly superior defense.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Wells is 4-2 in the UFC since 2021 but has lost his last two bouts and dealt with injuries in 2025. Gorimbo brings consistent striking volume (3.15 significant strikes/min) and accuracy (61%) versus Wells’ 2.41 strikes/min at 43% accuracy. Wells has a strong wrestling and grappling base but recent injury may limit takedown attempts.
  • No prior head-to-head matchups available between Wells and Gorimbo.
  • Wells withdrew from two fights in 2025 due to neck injuries but appears to be in good shape now. Gorimbo has no public injury concerns.
  • The fight takes place in UFC Apex, Las Vegas, a neutral venue for both. Gorimbo’s height (6’1”) and reach (77”) may allow him to maintain distance effectively.
  • Wells is highly motivated to break a two-fight losing skid and prove his health. Gorimbo aims to maintain momentum and prove superiority as the favorite.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Jeremiah Wells: +120, Themba Gorimbo: -142 Themba Gorimbo ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Jeremiah Wells +3.5: -165, Themba Gorimbo -3.5: +120 Themba Gorimbo -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -120, Under 2.5 rounds: -110 Over 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Themba Gorimbo -3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 10%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Themba Gorimbo; Spread: Gorimbo -3.5; Over/Under: Over 2.5 rounds

Predicted Score: Themba Gorimbo wins via decision after 3 rounds


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