Match Analysis: Jeongyoung Lee vs Daniel Santos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-10
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Centre Bell, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Game Overview
UFC 315 features an early prelim featherweight showdown between Daniel 'Willycat' Santos (Brazil) and JeongYeong 'Korean Tiger' Lee (South Korea). Santos, known for dynamic striking and aggressive offense, steps in on short notice after nearly two years of inactivity due to a series of fight cancellations. Lee, a BJJ black belt, is recognized for his explosive finishes and submission skills, but his last fight saw a first-round TKO loss, raising questions about his striking defense. Both fighters aim to rebound and climb the featherweight rankings.
Key Factors to Consider
- Santos has a 12-2 record (6 KOs, 2 subs), with his last win in June 2023. He is aggressive and has three first-round finishes. JeongYeong Lee is 11-2 (4 KOs, 3 subs), with five first-round wins. His last fight was a first-round TKO loss in July 2024.
- No previous fights between Santos and Lee.
- No recent major injuries reported, but Santos has a history of fight withdrawals. Both have had fight cancellation issues, and Santos hasn't competed since June 2023.
- Santos taking the fight on short notice may impact conditioning and preparation. Lee has a full camp and is coming off a recent loss.
- High motivation for both fighters. Santos needs a win to regain UFC trust after several withdrawals. Lee seeks a statement win after a recent setback.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Daniel Santos: -102, Jeongyoung Lee: -118 | Jeongyoung Lee Moneyline | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
| Spread | Daniel Santos: 3.5 -175, Jeongyoung Lee: -3.5 125 | Jeongyoung Lee -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 100, Under: 2.5 -130 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 67% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jeongyoung Lee -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Expect a competitive, fast-paced featherweight clash. Santos brings unpredictable, aggressive striking but may struggle with ring rust. Lee's grappling and experience in recent fights give him the edge. Given the short notice for Santos and Lee's desperation to rebound, the fight could end early, with Lee's submission or ground control standing out. However, Santos' upside as a finisher cannot be ignored.
Predicted Score: Jeongyoung Lee by Submission (Round 2)