Match Analysis: Alycia Baumgardner vs Jennifer Miranda – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-11
- Time: 1:04 AM UTC
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, US
Game Overview
The boxing match between Alycia Baumgardner and Jennifer Miranda is a highly anticipated 10-round contest in the Super Featherweight division (130 lbs). Baumgardner, the Undisputed Women’s Junior Lightweight champion, holds a record of 15-1 with 7 KOs, while Jennifer Miranda is undefeated at 12-0 with 1 KO. The fight is part of a historic all-women's card headlined by Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano at Madison Square Garden.
Key Factors to Consider
- Baumgardner has demonstrated considerable power with a 47% knockout rate, significantly higher than Miranda's 8%. Baumgardner's experience includes 16 professional fights since 2017, while Miranda has 12 fights since 2018. Baumgardner's recent layoff due to a no-contest fight and a cleared doping allegation may affect ring readiness. Miranda is undefeated and will aim to leverage her clean record and steady rise.
- They have not faced each other before, making this a fresh matchup with no previous direct encounters to analyze.
- No current injuries reported for either fighter. Baumgardner is returning from a no-contest due to a clash of heads with Delfine Persoon but is medically cleared to fight.
- The fight takes place on a high-profile card at Madison Square Garden with significant media attention and streaming on Netflix, adding pressure and motivation. Baumgardner's personal narrative of overcoming adversity and a doping controversy cleared by WBC adds a storyline element that could influence her motivation.
- Baumgardner seeks to reaffirm her status as a dominant champion and overcome recent setbacks, including the doping allegation and no-contest bout. Miranda aims to maintain her undefeated record and claim a major title by defeating a recognized champion, giving her strong incentive.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alycia Baumgardner: -2500, Jennifer Miranda: 900 | Alycia Baumgardner | ★★★★☆ 88% |
| Spread | Alycia Baumgardner: -3.5 rounds favored, Jennifer Miranda: +3.5 rounds | Alycia Baumgardner -3.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 7.5 rounds: -110, Under 7.5 rounds: -110 | Under 7.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alycia Baumgardner -13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Alycia Baumgardner at -13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Alycia Baumgardner is favored to win due to her power, championship experience, and youth advantage despite the undefeated status of Miranda. Miranda's resilience and undefeated streak make the fight competitive, yet the odds and data lean strongly towards Baumgardner securing a decision or stoppage victory.
Predicted Score: Baumgardner wins by unanimous decision or stoppage between rounds 7-10