Match Analysis: Sofia Montenegro vs Jeisla Chaves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-24
- Time: 1:05 AM UTC
- Location: Dana White's Contender Series
Game Overview
The MMA flyweight match on Dana White's Contender Series features Sofia Montenegro (6-1) from Argentina and Jeisla Santos Chaves (5-0) from Brazil. Montenegro is a more tested fighter with a somewhat diverse skill set including striking, decent wrestling, and ground and pound, but with defensive issues and a history of a knockout loss. Chaves is undefeated but against significantly weaker competition and with unproven grappling and defensive striking. This fight could be a breakout moment for either fighter seeking UFC contracts.
Key Factors to Consider
- Montenegro has faced opponents with winning records and has demonstrated ability to finish fights via KO/TKO, submission, and decision, albeit with some recklessness and a weak chin. Chaves remains undefeated but her five opponents had no MMA wins and she lacks documented ground skills, relying mainly on a Muay Thai striking base which includes technical but risky striking and poor head movement.
- There is no recorded previous encounter between Montenegro and Chaves.
- No injuries reported for either fighter prior to the match.
- The fight is on Dana White's Contender Series platform, increasing pressure as both fighters look to secure UFC contracts. Montenegro trains at the UFC Performance Institute, suggesting access to high-level facilities and coaching.
- Both fighters are highly motivated, but Montenegro may have an edge due to her experience testing herself against tougher competition and showing recent improvements in fight IQ.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jeisla Chaves: 163, Sofia Montenegro: -188 | Sofia Montenegro to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -145, Under 2.5 rounds: 125 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sofia Montenegro -13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sofia Montenegro is predicted to win by KO/TKO, likely in the second round, owing to her broader skill set, better test of opponents, and more proven finishing capability despite her defensive vulnerabilities.
Predicted Score: Sofia Montenegro wins by KO/TKO in Round 2