Match Analysis: Lucas Gouveia vs Jean Sevalho – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-07
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: LFA 221
Game Overview
Featherweight clash between Lucas Gouveia (Brazil, Bantamweight) and Jean Sevalho (guest fighter, Featherweight) in LFA 221. The fight is expected to be competitive, with Sevalho being the statistical favorite despite Gouveia's home country advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Jean Sevalho is listed as a favorite, with more experience and a professional fight record, while Lucas Gouveia has less experience in professional MMA tournaments[1].
- No direct head-to-head history found, but Sevalho's broader experience may give him an edge in matchups against Gouveia[1].
- No reported injuries for either fighter from available sources.
- Gouveia benefits from fighting in his home country, which could influence judges in a close fight, but also faces possible moral pressure from home fans[1]. Sevalho has to deal with being a guest fighter, which may lead to potential bias against him in judging[1].
- Sevalho is the statistical favorite and may be more motivated to prove himself as a guest, while Gouveia might be under pressure to perform in front of a home crowd[1].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jean Sevalho +100, Lucas Gouveia -130 | Jean Sevalho | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 -130, Under 1.5 +100 | Over 1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jean Sevalho 16% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Jean Sevalho at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jean Sevalho is slightly favored to win based on experience and the statistical probability model, but the home advantage for Gouveia could even the odds if the fight goes to a decision.
Predicted Score: Jean Sevalho by decision (most likely outcome according to win method probabilities)