Match Analysis: Jean Matsumoto vs Miles Johns – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

The UFC Featherweight matchup features Jean Matsumoto, a 25-year-old Brazilian fighter with a 16-1 record, fighting orthodox stance and known for high volume striking but weaker defense. He faces Miles Johns, a 31-year-old American with a 15-3 record, also orthodox, who is more precise and defensively sound. Both fighters weigh 135 lbs and have similar height and reach, making it a competitive bout where striking accuracy and defense will be key.

Key Factors to Consider

• Matsumoto boasts a higher output rate of significant strikes at 5.18/min compared to Johns' 3.16/min but with less accuracy (41% vs 44%). Johns excels at defense, allowing only 2.65 significant strikes/min with a 67% defense rate, whereas Matsumoto allows 5.40/min with 45% defense.
• No previous fight history between them; this is their first encounter, making adaptability during the fight a factor.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the matchup.
• Fight held at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, neutral location with no home advantage; both fighters seem motivated by career progression at this main card event.
• Matsumoto aims to maintain his near-perfect record and prove striking dominance; Johns wants to leverage his experience and defensive skills to upset the younger fighter.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jean Matsumoto: -298, Miles Johns: 240	Jean Matsumoto	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Jean Matsumoto -3.5: -115, Miles Johns +3.5: -115	Jean Matsumoto -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -298, Under 2.5: 220	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jean Matsumoto -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 92%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 92% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jean Matsumoto to win by decision, leveraging his striking volume advantage and physical prime despite defensive deficits.

Predicted Score: Jean Matsumoto wins by unanimous decision after three rounds

Match Analysis: Rob Font vs Jean Matsumoto – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-02-23
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle

Game Overview

Rob Font, ranked No. 9 in the UFC bantamweight rankings, faces undefeated Jean Matsumoto in a 140-pound catchweight bout. Font seeks to build on his recent win against Kyler Phillips, while Matsumoto looks to extend his undefeated record.

Key Factors to Consider

• Rob Font has a strong UFC record with 11 wins, but recently faced a two-fight skid. Jean Matsumoto is undefeated with two UFC wins, showcasing impressive skills in his early career.
• This is the first meeting between Rob Font and Jean Matsumoto, with no prior head-to-head data.
• No significant injuries reported for either fighter leading up to the match.
• The fight is at a catchweight, which might affect both fighters' strategies and performance.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Font looking to solidify his position in the rankings and Matsumoto seeking to continue his undefeated streak.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jean Matsumoto: -160, Rob Font: 140	Jean Matsumoto	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Jean Matsumoto: -3.5 135, Rob Font: 3.5 -190	Rob Font +3.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over: 2.5 -300, Under: 2.5 240	Under 2.5	★★★☆☆ 58%

Predicted Outcome

Jean Matsumoto is favored due to his undefeated record and recent performances.

Predicted Score: Jean Matsumoto wins by decision.