Match Analysis: Justice Torres vs Javier Reyes Rugeles – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-24
- Time: 12:40 AM UTC
- Location: Dana White's Contender Series, Week 7 (venue not explicitly specified)
Game Overview
The fight features Javier Reyes Rugeles (31 years old, 21-5 record) versus Justice Torres (27 years old, 12-3 record) competing at 145 lbs in Dana White's Contender Series Week 7. Both fighters are skilled featherweights with particular strengths: Reyes has a higher number of KOs and submissions; Torres has more decision wins. The fight was a late replacement for originally scheduled opponents, making matchup preparation less stable.
Key Factors to Consider
- Reyes comes in with a 21-5 record, 3-2 in the last five fights, showing recent moderate form. Torres has a 12-3 record with a better recent run of 4-1 in his last five performances. Both have never lost by draw. Reyes shows more finishing ability via KO/TKO and submissions, while Torres wins more often via decisions.
- No previous direct fights between Reyes and Torres have been documented.
- No reported injuries influencing the fight for either fighter according to available data.
- Multiple opponent changes prior to the bout could have impacted fighter camp momentum, particularly for Torres who is a last-minute replacement. The fight is under Dana White's Contender Series spotlight, which creates motivation for UFC contract opportunities.
- Both fighters seek to impress on Contender Series for potential UFC inclusion. Reyes’s longer career and experience may provide confidence; Torres's recent strong form and youth bring high motivation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Javier Reyes Rugeles: -180, Justice Torres: 155 | Javier Reyes Rugeles to win | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -155, Under 2.5 rounds: 135 | Under 2.5 rounds (fight likely to end before round 3) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Javier Reyes Rugeles -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 29% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Javier Reyes is predicted to edge out a victory against Justice Torres given his finishing ability and experience, though it will be competitive given Torres’s resilience and recent form.
Predicted Score: Javier Reyes Rugeles wins by TKO or submission in round 2