Match Analysis: Jessica Andrade vs Jasmine Jasudavicius – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-11
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, Canada
Game Overview
This UFC 315 preliminary card bout features a women's flyweight clash between former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade and Canadian rising contender Jasmine Jasudavicius. Jasudavicius, riding a strong winning streak, is eager to prove her title credentials by defeating a former champion. Andrade, known for her power and experience across multiple divisions, looks to bounce back and reassert herself near the top of the flyweight rankings. The matchup contrasts Jasudavicius' size, durability, and mat skills against Andrade's knockout power and veteran savvy.
Key Factors to Consider
- Jasudavicius (13-3, 7-2 UFC) enters with momentum, recently showcasing improved finishing ability, especially on the mat. Andrade (26-13, 17-11 UFC), one of the most decorated women in UFC history, is coming off a return to form in 2024 after a challenging 2023, but has historically struggled against larger flyweights.
- No prior matchups. Andrade's experience and power are offset by her size disadvantage at flyweight. Jasudavicius has faced and beaten several Brazilian opponents recently, building a strong regional reputation within the division.
- No significant injuries reported for either fighter leading into the bout.
- The fight takes place in Montreal, Canada, giving Jasudavicius a hometown advantage. Andrade has been a consistent top-10 fighter but is undersized compared to Jasudavicius at flyweight. Personal turmoil for Andrade in recent years may be a consideration, but she has rebounded in her latest bouts.
- Jasudavicius is highly motivated to leap into title contention with a win over a decorated opponent. Andrade, the former champ, is motivated to reclaim her spot at the top and prove her resilience after recent personal struggles.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jasmine Jasudavicius: -310, Jessica Andrade: +250 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | High (75%) |
| Spread | Jasmine Jasudavicius: -3.5 (-135), Jessica Andrade: +3.5 (+100) | Jasmine Jasudavicius covers (-3.5) | Medium-High (65%) |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 (-145), Under: 2.5 (+114) | Under 2.5 Rounds | Medium (55%) |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jasmine Jasudavicius -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 18% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jasudavicius wins, likely via late stoppage or submission. Her size, durability, and mat skills are expected to overcome Andrade's power and experience, especially given the Canadian's recent form and Andrade's historical struggles against larger flyweights.
Predicted Score: Jasmine Jasudavicius defeats Jessica Andrade by submission or TKO in Round 2