Match Analysis: Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moises – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-17
- Time: 10:35 PM UTC
- Location: Not specified
Game Overview
This Lightweight division matchup in the UFC features Jared Gordon, known for his aggressive approach, facing Thiago Moises, who excels at neutralizing opponents with his patient and poised fighting style. Moises has a solid wrestling and grappling game, while Gordon is expected to be the more active fighter. The fight is part of the UFC Vegas 106 Prelims.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both fighters have similar records, with Gordon holding a slight edge in activity and aggression. Moises, however, has a more effective neutralizing style, which he uses to control opponents.
- No prior head-to-head matchups between these fighters are noted.
- No recent injuries are reported for either fighter.
- The fight environment in the UFC Vegas 106 Prelims could favor Gordon's aggressive style, but Moises's calm approach might counterbalance this.
- Both fighters are motivated to secure a win, but Gordon's aggressive style might indicate a higher level of motivation to outperform Moises.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -122 : 102 | Jared Gordon | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Spread | -3.5 175 : 3.5 -245 | Jared Gordon | ★★★☆☆ 50% |
| Over/under | 2.5 -330 : 2.5 240 | Under | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jared Gordon 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 104% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 104% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 43.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jared Gordon is likely to win via decision due to his aggressive strategy and ability to outwork opponents. However, Moises's grappling skills could pose a challenge if he can take Gordon down.
Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Jared Gordon