Match Analysis: Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 12:15 AM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

Lightweight bout between Rafa Garcia and Jared Gordon on UFC Fight Night 259 with Gordon as a strong favorite based on striking volume and accuracy versus Garcia's grappling strength.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jared Gordon holds a record of 21-7-0 (1 NC) and exhibits higher striking volume (5.67 per minute) and accuracy (55%) than Rafa Garcia's 4.01 strikes per minute and 43% accuracy. Garcia has a better takedown rate (3.21 per 15 minutes) and submission threat with eight submission wins.
• No direct previous matchups recorded between Rafa Garcia and Jared Gordon.
• No significant injuries reported for either fighter approaching the bout.
• Fight scheduled at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, neither fighter has a strong home advantage. The event timing and travel appear neutral.
• Both fighters are motivated to climb the lightweight rankings. Gordon’s recent KO win boosts confidence, while Garcia aims to capitalize early rounds with grappling.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jared Gordon -250, Rafa Garcia +205	Jared Gordon	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Jared Gordon -3.5 100, Rafa Garcia +3.5 -140	Jared Gordon -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -330, Under 2.5 +240	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jared Gordon -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -22%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jared Gordon at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jared Gordon to win by decision

Predicted Score: Jared Gordon wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moises – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-17
• Time: 10:35 PM UTC
• Location: Not specified

Game Overview

This Lightweight division matchup in the UFC features Jared Gordon, known for his aggressive approach, facing Thiago Moises, who excels at neutralizing opponents with his patient and poised fighting style. Moises has a solid wrestling and grappling game, while Gordon is expected to be the more active fighter. The fight is part of the UFC Vegas 106 Prelims.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters have similar records, with Gordon holding a slight edge in activity and aggression. Moises, however, has a more effective neutralizing style, which he uses to control opponents.
• No prior head-to-head matchups between these fighters are noted.
• No recent injuries are reported for either fighter.
• The fight environment in the UFC Vegas 106 Prelims could favor Gordon's aggressive style, but Moises's calm approach might counterbalance this.
• Both fighters are motivated to secure a win, but Gordon's aggressive style might indicate a higher level of motivation to outperform Moises.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-122 : 102	Jared Gordon	★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread	-3.5 175 : 3.5 -245	Jared Gordon	★★★☆☆ 50%
Over/under	2.5 -330 : 2.5 240	Under	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jared Gordon 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 104%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 104% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 43.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jared Gordon is likely to win via decision due to his aggressive strategy and ability to outwork opponents. However, Moises's grappling skills could pose a challenge if he can take Gordon down.

Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Jared Gordon

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – May 17, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig Prediction	Rodolfo Bellato	-535	275%
Elise Reed vs. Denise Gomes Prediction	Under 2.5	145	47%
Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises Prediction	Over 2.5	-330	36%

Combined Odds: +279 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $75.78