Match Analysis: Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 12:15 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Noche 3 (Venue unspecified in sources)
Game Overview
This UFC lightweight bout features Rafa Garcia (17-4) against Jared Gordon (21-7-0 with 1 No Contest). Garcia is a slightly shorter but longer reach fighter known for his grappling with a high takedown average and defense. Gordon is a taller, more accurate, and higher volume striker with competent wrestling and recent knockout momentum. Both use orthodox stances and weigh 155 lbs, but their styles contrast with Garcia’s grappling emphasis and Gordon’s striking volume and accuracy.
Key Factors to Consider
- Garcia has a strong grappling game with 3.21 takedowns per 15 minutes and 77% takedown defense allowing control on the mat. Gordon lands more strikes per minute (5.67 vs 4.01) and has better striking accuracy (55% vs 43%) but has lower takedown accuracy (32%) and defense (62%). Garcia tends to absorb more strikes (4.47 vs 3.91) but exerts control through grappling. Recent form: Garcia is 3-2 in last five fights, Gordon also around similar with momentum from a recent knockout win.
- No record of previous direct fights between Garcia and Gordon available, so no historical head-to-head data for direct comparison.
- No reported injuries or health issues for either fighter leading into this match.
- Fight is scheduled for UFC Noche 3, a notable event likely to motivate both fighters to perform well in a high-profile matchup. No environmental or venue-related external impacts reported.
- Both fighters display strong motivation: Gordon coming off a knockout win recently, aiming to impose striking dominance, while Garcia aims to leverage grappling control to neutralize Gordon’s striking. Their records and trajectories suggest both are highly motivated to assert their skills and advance ranking.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jared Gordon: -250, Rafa Garcia: +205 | Rafa Garcia to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Jared Gordon: -3.5 (100), Rafa Garcia: +3.5 (-140) | Rafa Garcia +3.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -330, Under 2.5 rounds: +240 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jared Gordon 86% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 0% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Jared Gordon at 86% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 42% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Rafa Garcia is predicted to win by grappling control and probable decision or late stoppage, using takedowns and ground control to limit Jared Gordon’s striking effectiveness. Garcia’s takedown accuracy and defense against Gordon’s moderate wrestling success tip the scales in his favor despite Gordon’s striking superiority.
Predicted Score: Fight likely to go the distance or late in the bout with Garcia edging a decision win, estimated outcome: Rafa Garcia wins by unanimous decision or late round submission/ground TKO.