Match Analysis: Dean Garnett vs Jan Cieplowski – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PFL Europe 3, Nantes

Game Overview

This PFL Europe 3 matchup features Jan Cieplowski favored to defeat Dean Garnett with strong odds reflecting his recent form and skill advantage. Garnett enters as the underdog with respectable but lesser betting support.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jan Cieplowski has a solid recent record with multiple wins in the PFL and Armia Fight Night promotions, consistently favored by bookmakers (odds around -260 to -350). Dean Garnett shows competitive fight readiness but with less consistent notable victories and thus longer odds (+185 to +225).
• No direct recorded head-to-head bouts, so analysis relies on form, styles, and career progression.
• No public injury reports on either fighter prior to the bout, indicating both are likely at full fitness.
• The fight location in Nantes, France (PFL Europe 3 event) favors neither fighter geographically as both have fought internationally. No distractions or motivation impairments reported.
• Both fighters are motivated to secure wins in a high-profile PFL Europe event, with Cieplowski slightly favored due to recent upward trajectory and reputation in European MMA.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jan Cieplowski -280, Dean Garnett +205	Jan Cieplowski	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Jan Cieplowski -1.5 rounds -140, Dean Garnett +1.5 rounds +110	Jan Cieplowski -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Under 2.5 rounds -120, Over 2.5 rounds +100	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 100% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jan Cieplowski to win on the moneyline, covering the spread and the fight going under the projected total rounds.

Predicted Score: Jan Cieplowski wins via submission or TKO in Round 2