Match Analysis: James Power vs Omar Tugarev – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Cage Warriors 191: Gittins vs. Giordano 2 event
Game Overview
The interim lightweight title bout between James Power and Omar Tugarev features two rising contenders in the 155 lbs division. Power holds a pro record of 8-1, known for his striking power with 7 of his wins by KO/TKO and one decision loss. Tugarev is undefeated at 7-0, a versatile finisher with 3 KOs and 3 submissions, showing a balanced skill set. The fight is scheduled for 5 rounds in the Cage Warriors Fighting Championship.
Key Factors to Consider
- James Power is coming off strong performances, showing a high knockout rate (78%) but has never won by submission. Omar Tugarev has an unbeaten record with an even split between knockouts and submissions (43% each), suggesting a more well-rounded finishing ability.
- This is their first meeting; no prior head-to-head data is available.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, indicating both are likely at full health.
- The fight is a high-stakes interim lightweight title bout which could affect motivation and pressure. Both fighters are relatively young and hungry for a title opportunity.
- Tugarev looks to maintain his undefeated streak and claim the interim title, while Power aims to avenge his sole loss and solidify his status as a top lightweight contender.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | James Power: -145, Omar Tugarev: 125 | James Power to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | James Power -1.5 (standard UFC/MMA spreads usually aren’t public, inference based on moneyline) | James Power to win by a margin (e.g., finish or decision clear enough to cover spread) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -140, Under 2.5 rounds: 110 | Under 2.5 rounds, likely a quicker finish given both fighters have high finish rates | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | James Power -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 20% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
James Power is favored to win due to his striking power and experience, but Omar Tugarev's undefeated record and submission skills make this a competitive matchup. A close fight is expected, with Power having a slight edge in winning probability.
Predicted Score: James Power wins by TKO in round 3