Match Analysis: Connor Patterson vs Jake McHugh – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 3:00 PM UTC
• Location: Vertu Motors Arena, Newcastle, England

Game Overview

Featherweight main card fight at Cage Warriors 193 between Connor Patterson and Jake McHugh scheduled for September 13, 2025. Both fighters have shown mixed recent form, with Patterson favored on the moneyline.

Key Factors to Consider

• Connor Patterson has a slightly more consistent recent record with winning momentum, whereas Jake McHugh shows more variability in performance. Patterson’s striking accuracy and control in grappling exchanges marginally outpace McHugh’s recent stats.
• No recorded direct head-to-head fights between Connor Patterson and Jake McHugh, making this a first matchup with no direct performance comparison.
• No publicly reported current injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
• The fight takes place at a home-country venue for both fighters from the UK, neutralizing potential crowd advantage. No known external distractions or issues affecting performance.
• Both fighters are motivated to establish status in Cage Warriors featherweight division, but Patterson’s recent upward trajectory in rankings suggests slightly higher motivation and confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Connor Patterson -135, Jake McHugh -105	Connor Patterson	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Connor Patterson -1.5 rounds (-120), Jake McHugh +1.5 rounds (-110)	Connor Patterson -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds (-115), Under 2.5 rounds (-105)	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Connor Patterson 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Connor Patterson at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Connor Patterson to win by moneyline; Patterson to cover -1.5 rounds spread; fight to go under 2.5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Connor Patterson wins by TKO in round 2

Match Analysis: Nathan McGillian vs Jake McHugh – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-27
• Time: 7:00 PM UTC
• Location: Cage Warriors 190 Unplugged, Location TBD

Game Overview

The upcoming MMA fight between Nathan McGillian and Jake McHugh at Cage Warriors 190 Unplugged features two well-matched featherweight contenders with contrasting styles. McGillian brings aggressive striking and a strong finishing record, while McHugh is favored for his grappling and tactical approach. This matchup is expected to be competitive, with McHugh currently the betting favorite.

Key Factors to Consider

• Nathan McGillian has shown consistent performance with notable striking power but has faced challenges against top-tier grapplers. Jake McHugh has a solid fight record with effective ground control and submission skills, making him a tough opponent inside the cage.
• No prior head-to-head encounters between Nathan McGillian and Jake McHugh have been recorded, making this their first official meeting.
• There are no publicly reported injuries for either fighter leading up to this bout, indicating both are likely at full strength.
• The fight will be streamed live on UFC Fight Pass, increasing the exposure for both fighters. There are no reported external disruptions or conditions expected to affect fighter performance.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with McHugh looking to solidify his position as a top contender and McGillian aiming to upset the favorite and advance his career trajectory.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Nathan McGillian: +300, Jake McHugh: -350	Jake McHugh	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Jake McHugh -1.5: -120, Nathan McGillian +1.5: +100	Jake McHugh -1.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jake McHugh is predicted to win due to his grappling advantage and tactical fight IQ, with a solid chance to control the pace and secure a decision victory or submission in later rounds.

Predicted Score: Jake McHugh wins via submission in Round 3

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Jordan Molinari vs. Yannis Osmani Prediction	Jordan Molinari Win	-355	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Josh Abraham vs. Harry Shaw Prediction	Harry Shaw Win	-163	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Nathan McGillian vs. Jake McHugh Prediction	Jake McHugh Win	-350	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +166

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $53.18