Match Analysis: Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 3:15 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Fight Night Perth
Game Overview
Welterweight MMA bout between Jake Matthews and Neil Magny scheduled for UFC Fight Night in Perth. Matthews enters as a strong favorite with better recent performances and younger age. Magny brings size, reach, and experience but is the underdog.
Key Factors to Consider
- Matthews has been in very good form recently with a strong finishing ability inside the distance, winning by KO or submission. Magny has solid wins but lower finishing rate and is older with slightly declining athleticism.
- No known direct previous matchups between Matthews and Magny. Styles suggest Matthews' grappling and finishing could challenge Magny despite size/reach advantage.
- No reported recent injuries for either fighter, both appear healthy and prepared.
- Fight takes place in Perth, near Matthews' home region (Australia), which may provide slight psychological and crowd support advantage. Magny is traveling internationally.
- Matthews is motivated to maintain upward trajectory in welterweight division after recent wins. Magny aims to upset a highly favored opponent to regain top contender status.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Matthews -380 / Magny +300 | Jake Matthews | ★★★★☆ 76% |
| Spread | Matthews -3.5 (-165) / Magny +3.5 (+120) | Jake Matthews -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-145) / Under 2.5 (+114) | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jake Matthews -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 46% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 46% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 39.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jake Matthews to win by knockout or submission inside the distance
Predicted Score: Jake Matthews wins by 2nd round KO