Match Analysis: Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 3:15 AM UTC
- Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia
Game Overview
The UFC welterweight bout between Jake Matthews and Neil Magny is set for September 27, 2025, at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. Matthews is favored in his home country, facing Magny, a taller and more experienced fighter, in a main card matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- Jake Matthews has shown solid grappling and striking skills with a well-rounded style, holding a local advantage and momentum in recent UFC performances. Neil Magny brings vast experience, a longer reach (191 cm vs. Matthews' 180 cm), and a reputation for endurance and tactical striking.
- This appears to be the first meeting between Jake Matthews and Neil Magny at UFC level, so no direct head-to-head data is available.
- No reported injuries affecting either fighter at the time of analysis.
- Fighting in Perth gives Matthews a home crowd advantage and possibly better acclimatization. Magny travels from the USA and might face minor jet lag effects. The fight location is significant as Matthews has previously performed better on home soil.
- Matthews is highly motivated to assert dominance on home turf and climb UFC welterweight rankings, while Magny seeks to leverage his experience to rebound and maintain relevancy in the division.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jake Matthews: -380, Neil Magny: 300 | Jake Matthews | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Jake Matthews: -3.5, Neil Magny: 3.5 | Jake Matthews -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | over: 2.5, under: 2.5 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jake Matthews -99% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 -99% |
⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.
Predicted Outcome
Jake Matthews is favored by a moderate margin to win by decision or late stoppage, leveraging home advantage and grappling against Magny’s reach and experience.
Predicted Score: Jake Matthews wins by decision or submission by Round 3