Match Analysis: Clayton Carpenter vs Jafel Filho – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 2:00 PM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

Clayton Carpenter faces Jafel Filho in a UFC Flyweight bout with Carpenter slightly favored on the moneyline. Carpenter (8-1) is younger with higher significant strikes landed per minute, better accuracy, and stronger defense. Filho (16-4) is more experienced but lands fewer significant strikes and takes fewer per minute. Both use orthodox stance and are closely matched in height and reach.

Key Factors to Consider

• Carpenter boasts a high 3.91 significant strikes landed per minute at 55% accuracy, while Filho lands 1.92 strikes per minute at 41% accuracy. Defensively, Carpenter allows 2.75 strikes per minute but deflects 55%, Filho allows 1.63 strikes per minute with 47% deflection. Carpenter has younger age (29 vs. 32) and a recent KO win momentum.
• No direct previous bouts found between Carpenter and Filho.
• No reported injuries or recent layoffs affecting either fighter.
• Fight location in Rio may slightly favor Filho due to home crowd support and familiarity, but Carpenter appears mentally focused with stronger recent form.
• Both fighters highly motivated for UFC Rio event, Carpenter eager to solidify his rising status; Filho motivated to leverage experience against a younger contender.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-125	Clayton Carpenter	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Clayton Carpenter -3.5 (150)	Clayton Carpenter -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 (-195)	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Clayton Carpenter 4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Clayton Carpenter at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Clayton Carpenter to win by moneyline

Predicted Score: Clayton Carpenter wins by decision or late finish, total rounds: 3

Match Analysis: Jafel Filho vs Allan Nascimento – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-31
• Time: 12:45 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

This is a flyweight (125 lbs) preliminary bout at UFC Vegas 107, featuring Jafel Filho (16-3-0, 32 years old, 5'7") against Allan Nascimento (20-6-0, 33 years old, 5'8"). Both fighters are orthodox and experienced, with Nascimento holding a minor height and reach advantage. Filho is more accurate defensively but Nascimento is more efficient offensively, landing a higher percentage of significant strikes per minute (3.21 vs 2.36, 61% vs 41% accuracy). Both have comparable defense percentages, but Nascimento's superior output and efficiency are notable.

Key Factors to Consider

• Nascimento has a higher overall win record and superior striking efficiency. Filho has a respectable record but relies more on defensive acumen.
• No prior UFC or documented head-to-head bouts between these two fighters.
• No major injuries reported for either fighter going into this match.
• Venue is a controlled environment (UFC Apex); both are experienced, but Nascimento's recent performances show slightly higher momentum.
• Both fighters are positioned for a step up in the flyweight division; a win is crucial for either to advance.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jafel Filho: +130, Allan Nascimento: -155	Allan Nascimento	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Allan Nascimento: -3.5 (+130), Jafel Filho: +3.5 (-180)	Allan Nascimento -3.5	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -160, Under 2.5: +124	Over 2.5 Rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Allan Nascimento -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Allan Nascimento is favored to win due to a higher striking output, better accuracy, and a slight reach advantage. However, Filho's defensive skills could make the fight close, but Nascimento's volume and efficiency are likely to be decisive factors.

Predicted Score: Allan Nascimento to win by unanimous decision (29-28 or 30-27), with the fight going over 2.5 rounds.