Match Analysis: Clayton Carpenter vs Jafel Filho – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 2:00 PM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

The upcoming fight between Clayton Carpenter and Jafel Filho at UFC Rio is set to be a closely contested bout in the Flyweight division. Both fighters have strong backgrounds in grappling, with Filho having a more extensive MMA experience and Carpenter boasting a high success rate in the early stages of his career.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jafel Filho leads in overall experience with a 16-4-0 record, while Clayton Carpenter has a strong 8-1-0 record with a high win percentage. Filho's experience may give him an edge in managing fight tempo.
• There is no previous head-to-head match between the two fighters, making this a first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• Carpenter's aggressive style might be offset by Filho's defensive capabilities.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, as a win could boost their UFC rankings and career prospects.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Carpenter: -125, Filho: +105	Carpenter	★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread	Carpenter: -3.5 @ 150, Filho: 3.5 @ -205	Filho covers the spread	★★★☆☆ 52%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -195, Under 2.5: 150	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Clayton Carpenter 4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -17%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Clayton Carpenter at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

This fight is expected to be competitive, with both fighters capable of winning. However, Clayton Carpenter's aggressive striking and grappling skills might give him an edge.

Predicted Score: Unapplicable for MMA Fights

Match Analysis: Jafel Filho vs Allan Nascimento – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-31
• Time: 12:45 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV, USA

Game Overview

Jafel Filho faces Allan Nascimento in a flyweight bout at UFC Vegas 107. Filho, with a 16-3 record, is a 32-year-old orthodox fighter standing 5'7" with a 68" reach. Nascimento, with a 20-6 record, is 33 years old, also orthodox, standing 5'8" with a 69" reach. Nascimento has higher significant striking rate and accuracy than Filho, connecting on 3.21 strikes per minute at 61% accuracy versus Filho’s 2.36 strikes per minute at 41%. Defensively, both fighters are comparable, with Nascimento defending 50% of strikes and Filho 47%. The fight is expected to be a striking-focused contest with Nascimento holding a slight edge in volume and precision.

Key Factors to Consider

• Filho has a strong record of 16-3, showing consistent performance, while Nascimento has a slightly longer professional experience with a 20-6 record. Nascimento's striking volume and accuracy statistically surpass Filho’s, indicating potential dominance in stand-up exchanges. Both fighters have similar defensive stats, suggesting competitive back-and-forth action.
• There are no known prior fights between Jafel Filho and Allan Nascimento, making this matchup their first encounter.
• No information on injuries affecting either fighter prior to the match has been reported.
• The fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue with no home advantage. There are no noted external disruptions or conditions affecting the fighters.
• Both fighters aim to solidify their position in the flyweight division. Filho seeks to build on a strong record while Nascimento looks to leverage his experience and striking advantage to move up the ranks.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Allan Nascimento: -155, Jafel Filho: 130	Allan Nascimento	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Allan Nascimento -3.5: 130, Jafel Filho +3.5: -180	Allan Nascimento -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -160, Under 2.5: 124	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Allan Nascimento -6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -14%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Allan Nascimento at -6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Allan Nascimento is predicted to win by decision or late-round TKO due to his superior striking volume, accuracy, and slightly better defensive metrics. The fight is expected to be competitive with Nascimento controlling the pace and distance.

Predicted Score: Allan Nascimento wins by unanimous decision, 29-28 on all judges’ scorecards