Match Analysis: Jacobe Smith vs Niko Price – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 10:30 PM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Game Overview
A welterweight bout on the UFC 317 card between undefeated rising contender Jacobe Smith (10-0-0, 8 KOs) and veteran striker Niko Price (16-8-0, 2 NC). Smith is a southpaw with elite striking output and defense, while Price is a durable, experienced orthodox fighter with a history of violent finishes and unpredictability. The fight is part of International Fight Week and is seen as a showcase for Smith to prove he belongs among the division's elite, while Price is the underdog aiming to derail a rising star[1][2][5].
Key Factors to Consider
- Jacobe Smith enters with a perfect record, strong KO power (8/10 wins by KO), high striking accuracy (70%), and excellent defense (only 1.97 sig. strikes absorbed per minute). Niko Price is experienced but has a checkered record, with notable durability and a knack for exciting fights, but lower statistical output and defense[1][3][5].
- First meeting between the two fighters; no previous head-to-head encounters.
- No significant public injury reports for either fighter ahead of this bout.
- Event is a high-profile UFC pay-per-view during International Fight Week, with added pressure on Smith as the betting favorite and rising prospect. Price is a known spoiler and crowd favorite for his unorthodox style[4][5].
- Smith is eager to maintain his undefeated status and climb the welterweight rankings. Price is a seasoned veteran looking to upset the odds and remind the division of his threat.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacobe Smith: -2100, Niko Price: 1100 | Jacobe Smith | Very High (95%) |
| Spread | Jacobe Smith: -3.5 -1400, Niko Price: 3.5 600 | Jacobe Smith covers -3.5 | High (90%) |
| Over/under | over: 1.5 190, under: 1.5 -250 | Under 1.5 rounds | Moderate-High (70%) |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacobe Smith -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 -2% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Jacobe Smith at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jacobe Smith is favored heavily by oddsmakers and data, owing to his undefeated record, superior striking metrics, and momentum. Niko Price is a live underdog due to his experience and unpredictability, but the statistical and stylistic advantages lean strongly toward Smith. Expect Smith to win via early to mid-fight knockout or dominant decision, though Price always has a chance to land a highlight-reel finish[1][3][5].
Predicted Score: Jacobe Smith by KO/TKO in Round 1 or early Round 2