Jacobe Smith vs. Niko Price Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Jacobe Smith vs Niko Price – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-28
  • Time: 10:30 PM UTC
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

The UFC 317 event features a welterweight bout between undefeated Jacobe Smith and veteran Niko Price. Smith, a 29-year-old southpaw, holds a perfect 10-0 record and is known for his high striking accuracy and defense. Price, aged 35, brings experience with a 16-8 record, notable reach advantage, and a reputation for power and unpredictability. The fight is set to take place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on June 28, 2025.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Jacobe Smith shows superior striking stats with 7.34 significant strikes landed per minute at 70% accuracy and a strong defense allowing only 1.97 strikes per minute. Niko Price lands 5.21 strikes per minute at 42% accuracy but is more vulnerable, allowing 5.58 strikes per minute and defending 48%. Smith’s undefeated record contrasts with Price’s mixed results, indicating Smith's momentum and control in the cage.
  • No direct head-to-head bouts between Jacobe Smith and Niko Price have been recorded. This will be their first professional encounter, making the fight a test of Smith's undefeated status against Price's experience and toughness.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the fight, suggesting both competitors are at full health.
  • The fight occurs during UFC International Fight Week in a high-profile event in Las Vegas, favoring fighters accustomed to large audiences and pressure. Jacobe Smith appears motivated to maintain his undefeated streak on a big stage, while Price seeks to leverage his veteran savvy to upset the favorite.
  • Jacobe Smith is highly motivated to sustain his perfect record and make a definitive statement in the UFC welterweight division. Niko Price aims to demonstrate he remains a formidable contender capable of derailing rising prospects. The contrasting career trajectories add psychological stakes to the bout.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Jacobe Smith: -2100, Niko Price: 1100 Jacobe Smith ★★★★☆ 85%
Spread Jacobe Smith: -3.5 -1400, Niko Price: 3.5 600 Jacobe Smith -3.5 ★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under Over 1.5: 190, Under 1.5: -250 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Jacobe Smith -14%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 -16%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jacobe Smith at -14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jacobe Smith is favored to win by decision or late stoppage due to his superior striking accuracy, defense, and undefeated momentum. Price’s power and experience pose a threat, but Smith’s control and technical skill give him the edge.

Predicted Score: Jacobe Smith wins by decision or stoppage in Round 2 or 3


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