Match Analysis: Zachary Reese vs Jackson McVey – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas
Game Overview
A late-notice UFC Vegas 111 undercard bout between Zachary Reese (home) and Jackson McVey (away), with Reese stepping in as a last-minute replacement due to a different matchup falling through[1][4]. The fight highlights two fighters with similar builds and skill sets, though Reese is perceived to possess more power and experience, while McVey is seen as competent but not extraordinary with his reach management[2].
Key Factors to Consider
- Both fighters are relatively unproven at the UFC level, with limited information available on their recent performances. Reese is regarded as the more physically powerful and experienced fighter in this pairing, while McVey is viewed as solid but not exceptional in utilizing his reach[2]. Both have similar size, suggesting neither will have a significant physical advantage.
- No prior head-to-head encounters between Reese and McVey exist. Both fighters are not well known in the UFC, making direct comparison challenging.
- No public information regarding injuries to either fighter is currently available[3][4]. The most significant factor is the last-minute change to the card, with Reese replacing another fighter, which may have limited his preparation time[4].
- The late switch in opponent could impact fight preparation, with Reese potentially having less time to train specifically for McVey. The bout will be held at UFC APEX, known for its controlled environment, which typically does not favor either fighter.
- Both fighters are likely highly motivated to make a statement in the UFC, especially given the short-notice nature of the fight. Reese has a clear opportunity to capitalize on his perceived power advantage, while McVey may aim to utilize his technical skills for an upset.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | {"Jackson McVey": 290, "Zachary Reese": -355} | Zachary Reese to win | Moderate (60–65%) |
| Over/under | {"Over 1.5": 186, "Under 1.5": -220} | Under 1.5 rounds | High (70–75%) |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Zachary Reese -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 2% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Zachary Reese is favored by bookmakers and analysts, primarily due to his perceived superior power and experience. Prediction: Zachary Reese to win by late first-round TKO, though confidence in this outcome is moderate due to limited data on both fighters[2].
Predicted Score: Zachary Reese wins by TKO in the first round