Match Analysis: Jackson McVey vs Christopher Ewert – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Game Overview
This middleweight bout at UFC 317 features unbeaten prospects Jackson McVey (6-0) and Christopher Ewert (7-0) making their UFC debuts. Both fighters enter the Octagon with perfect records, making this a highly anticipated matchup to see who can maintain their unbeaten streak on a big stage. The fight is part of a stacked prelim card during the International Fight Week in Las Vegas.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both McVey and Ewert are undefeated in their professional MMA careers with records of 6-0 and 7-0 respectively. McVey is noted for his all-around skill set and finishing potential, including both knockouts and submissions. Ewert is competitive and durable, yet may be slightly less versatile than McVey. Neither has UFC experience, so this will test their abilities under the biggest spotlight.
- This is their first meeting; thus, no direct head-to-head data exists. Both fighters have exhibited impressive performances in regional circuits but will be tested at this higher competitive level.
- No injury reports or concerns have emerged for either fighter ahead of the bout, suggesting both are fully prepared physically.
- The fight takes place during UFC International Fight Week at the T-Mobile Arena, a large and high-energy environment that may add pressure to debut fighters. The event is highly publicized, which might benefit those more experienced with big crowds or media attention. McVey seems mentally poised, with external commentary favoring his finishing abilities under pressure.
- Both fighters are motivated to remain undefeated and make a significant impression in their UFC debuts, which could propel their careers forward rapidly. McVey appears especially driven and confident in his finishing skills, while Ewert aims to prove himself on the global stage as well.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Christopher Ewert: -170, Jackson McVey: 145 | Jackson McVey | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | over: -115, under: -115 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Christopher Ewert 37% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 31% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Christopher Ewert at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jackson McVey is predicted to win by KO or submission thanks to his more versatile skill set and potential to finish the fight. His confidence and finishing ability slightly outmatch Ewert's durability and consistency.
Predicted Score: Jackson McVey wins by 1st or 2nd round KO or submission