Match Analysis: Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-29
- Time: 1:30 AM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Game Overview
The middleweight bout between Jack Hermansson and Gregory Rodrigues is a key preliminary matchup on the UFC 317 card. Hermansson, a veteran gatekeeper to the middleweight elite with a solid striking and grappling pedigree, faces Rodrigues, a younger, more active fighter known for his pressure striking and improving grappling game. Rodrigues enters as the favorite due to his recent activity and three consecutive wins, but Hermansson’s experience and ability to withstand tough opposition make this a compelling contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rodrigues has fought more frequently in the last few years, averaging a fight every 5 months and 25 days with shorter bouts averaging 2.4 rounds. Hermansson has been less active, fighting roughly every 9 months and 25 days with longer fights averaging 3.6 rounds. Rodrigues’ recent form includes a rebound showing more well-rounded skills despite occasional striking vulnerabilities, while Hermansson has remained a reliable, durable competitor despite prolonged inactivity.
- This is their first meeting; thus, no direct head-to-head history exists between Hermansson and Rodrigues.
- No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of this bout, but Hermansson’s extended inactivity could suggest minor wear or ring rust compared to Rodrigues’ recent fight cadence.
- The fight takes place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, a familiar venue for both fighters. Rodrigues benefits from momentum and recent ring activity, while Hermansson’s veteran experience might offset any external pressure. The fight is streamed on ESPN+ PPV, heightening stakes with potential broader audience exposure.
- Rodrigues is motivated to capitalize on his upward trajectory after recent wins and to solidify his status as a middleweight contender. Hermansson aims to use his experience to halt Rodrigues’ rise and reestablish himself among the top middleweights.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gregory Rodrigues: -218, Jack Hermansson: 180 | Gregory Rodrigues | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Gregory Rodrigues -3.5: -125, Jack Hermansson +3.5: -105 | Gregory Rodrigues -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -145, Under 2.5 rounds: 114 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gregory Rodrigues -12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Gregory Rodrigues is predicted to win by a method that leverages his pressure striking and improved grappling, likely via decision or late stoppage. Hermansson's resilience suggests it will be competitive, but Rodrigues’ activity and momentum give him the edge.
Predicted Score: Gregory Rodrigues wins by decision or TKO in round 3 or 4