Match Analysis: Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-16
• Time: 5:30 AM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, USA

Game Overview

UFC 322 main event title fight between welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena and challenger Islam Makhachev. Jack is a powerful precision boxer with strong knockout potential if he can keep the fight standing, while Islam is a grappling and top-control specialist with elite endurance and takedown ability.

Key Factors to Consider

• Della Maddalena shows high knockout power and striking accuracy, averaging 6.84 significant strikes per minute with 56.6% accuracy. Makhachev uses superior wrestling, averaging 3.20 takedowns per fight with 53.62% accuracy, maintaining pressure and top control throughout.
• No prior direct fights between these two, making tactical matchups and styles key. Makhachev has historically dominated opponents through grappling control, while Della Maddalena succeeds by keeping the fight standing and exploiting striking advantage.
• No reported injuries on either side leading into this high-profile title bout.
• Fight is held at Madison Square Garden, adding hype and pressure but is a neutral venue for both. Both fighters show strong motivation with title on the line and reputation at stake.
• Della Maddalena motivated to defend title aggressively with his boxing; Makhachev motivated to reclaim welterweight belt using his grappling dominance and relentless pace.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: 230, away: -285	Islam Makhachev	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	home: 110, away: -150	Islam Makhachev -5.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over: -135, under: 105	Under 3.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Islam Makhachev -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 3.5 44%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 44% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Islam Makhachev wins by decision or late-round submission due to superior grappling control and cardio, neutralizing Della Maddalena's striking threat.

Predicted Score: Islam Makhachev wins via unanimous decision or submission in round 4 or 5

Match Analysis: Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-10
• Time: 4:30 AM UTC
• Location: Bell Centre, Montréal, Québec, Canada

Game Overview

The UFC 315 main event features welterweight champion Belal Muhammad defending his title against rising contender Jack Della Maddalena. Muhammad is known for his relentless pace, exceptional wrestling, and superior cardio, having remained unbeaten in his last eleven fights and winning the belt with a dominant display over Leon Edwards. Della Maddalena brings a striking-heavy style with accuracy and finishing ability, having won seven straight fights with five finishes, including a notable comeback knockout against Gilbert Burns. This fight pits a pressure wrestler and seasoned five-round fighter against a precise and powerful striker.

Key Factors to Consider

• Belal Muhammad's recent performances highlight his dominant wrestling and control over opponents coupled with elite cardio that wears down challengers over five rounds. Jack Della Maddalena's streak of finishes showcases his striking accuracy and ability to capitalize on opportunities, though he has less experience in championship-distance bouts.
• This is the first meeting between Muhammad and Della Maddalena, so there is no direct head-to-head history to analyze.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to UFC 315.
• The fight takes place in Montréal, which could offer a neutral environment for both fighters, though Muhammad is more accustomed to high-pressure UFC headlining events. Both fighters have had ample time to prepare without noticeable external distractions.
• Muhammad is motivated to defend his welterweight title and extend his unbeaten run, solidifying his status as champion. Della Maddalena is highly motivated to capture the belt and prove his striking can overcome a dominant wrestler, with the stakes at career-high levels.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Belal Muhammad: -192, Jack Della Maddalena: 160	Belal Muhammad to win	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Belal Muhammad -5.5: 120, Jack Della Maddalena +5.5: -165	Belal Muhammad to cover -5.5 points	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 4.5 rounds: -200, Under 4.5 rounds: 154	Under 4.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Belal Muhammad -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 4.5 52%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 4.5 at 52% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Belal Muhammad is predicted to retain his welterweight title via unanimous decision, leveraging his wrestling dominance, durability, and experience in five-round championship fights to neutralize Della Maddalena's striking threats.

Predicted Score: Belal Muhammad wins by unanimous decision after 5 rounds