Match Analysis: Jack Congdon vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-02
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
Game Overview
Welterweight bout between Jack Congdon (7-1-0) and Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (7-2-0) on Dana White's Contender Series main card, ESPN+, in Las Vegas.
Key Factors to Consider
- Congdon is a rising prospect with a 7-1 pro record but has faced generally weaker opponents. Lebosnoyani's 7-2 record comes against tougher competition and includes submission wins, highlighting his grappling proficiency.
- No prior head-to-head matchup exists between Congdon and Lebosnoyani.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the fight.
- Fight held at UFC APEX in Las Vegas, neutral venue, likely no significant external disruptions. Congdon has strong local support from New Bedford area.
- Both fighters motivated to secure UFC contracts, but Lebosnoyani’s experience against higher-level opponents and specialist skills may give him a psychological edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jack Congdon: 330, Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani: -400 | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Lebosnoyani -1.5: -150, Congdon +1.5: +120 | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: +145, Under 1.5 rounds: -165 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani -9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 -4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani to win by submission
Predicted Score: Lebosnoyani wins by submission in round 2