Match Analysis: Iwo Baraniewski vs Mahamed Aly – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-16
- Time: 1:30 AM UTC
- Location: Contender Series 2025 Week 6
Game Overview
This light heavyweight matchup features undefeated Iwo Baraniewski (5-0) facing the also undefeated Mahamed Aly (4-0). Both fighters show strong potential but come from different backgrounds — Baraniewski with a judo base and high finish rate, Aly with elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu and versatility in striking and grappling. Aly is a slight favorite on the moneyline given his more diverse skillset and slight physical advantages.
Key Factors to Consider
- Baraniewski boasts a 100% finish rate in his 5 wins, with a mix of knockouts and submissions, reflecting aggressive fight style and strong finishing ability. Aly has demonstrated both striking power (noted by head-kick KOs) and high-level grappling, showing multiple paths to victory but against less proven opponents overall.
- This will be the first contest between Baraniewski and Aly, with no direct head-to-head history to draw on but comparable undefeated records and fighting styles that suggest a competitive but cautious bout.
- No significant injury reports have been disclosed for either fighter heading into this fight, indicating both should be at full strength.
- The fight takes place in a high-pressure Dana White's Contender Series environment, where a UFC contract is often on the line, likely increasing motivation for both fighters to perform decisively.
- Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a UFC contract, but Aly’s experience facing tougher opponents recently may give him an edge in fight IQ and composure under pressure.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iwo Baraniewski: +170, Mahamed Aly: -200 | Mahamed Aly | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Mahamed Aly -1.5: -140, Iwo Baraniewski +1.5: +120 | Mahamed Aly -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5: +105, Under 1.5: -125 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mahamed Aly -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Mahamed Aly to win. Spread: Mahamed Aly -1.5 rounds. Over/Under: Under 1.5 rounds.
Predicted Score: Mahamed Aly wins by decision or late round finish