Match Analysis: Jim Crute vs Ivan Erslan – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 4:15 AM UTC
• Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia

Game Overview

Jim Crute, a proven UFC light heavyweight ranked contender with a solid wrestling base and finishing ability, faces Ivan Erslan who is making his UFC debut and seeking his first promotional win after mixed results in other promotions.

Key Factors to Consider

• Crute holds a 13-4-2 record with recent struggles but better UFC experience and high finishing upside; Erslan is 14-5-0 with one no contest and has yet to secure a UFC victory, showing promising but less proven form.
• No previous head-to-head matchups between Crute and Erslan exist.
• No publicly reported injuries for either fighter leading into this bout.
• Fight occurs in Crute's hometown of Perth, Australia, which may give him a psychological and crowd advantage. Erslan is traveling to a hostile environment for his UFC debut.
• Crute looks to bounce back and assert position in the division; Erslan is highly motivated to secure his first UFC win and make a name on a big stage.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jim Crute -185, Ivan Erslan +154	Jim Crute	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	Jim Crute -7.5 -115, Ivan Erslan +7.5 -115	Jim Crute -7.5	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over 1.5 -135, Under 1.5 +105	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jim Crute -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 23%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jimmy Crute to win via moneyline

Predicted Score: Jim Crute wins by decision or late finish within 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Navajo Stirling vs Ivan Erslan – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-10
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: UFC (Prelims, Light Heavyweight Division)

Game Overview

This is a preliminary light heavyweight bout in the UFC, featuring Navajo Stirling (New Zealand) versus Ivan Erslan (Croatia). Stirling is the betting favorite, with Erslan considered a significant underdog. Both fighters are relatively tall for the division and have a competitive reach, though Stirling holds a slight edge in both height and reach. The fight is scheduled for May 10, 2025, as part of the UFC 315 event.

Key Factors to Consider

• Navajo Stirling is a strong contender with a more favorable betting line, indicating superior recent performances or better perceived matchup fit. Ivan Erslan, while experienced, is seen as an underdog, likely due to less dominant performances in recent outings or stylistic disadvantages.
• No prior head-to-head history found. This is the first known meeting between these two fighters.
• No injury reports are available at this time for either fighter.
• No major external factors (weather, location disruptions) reported. Standard UFC prelim event conditions apply.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, especially Erslan looking to upset the odds, while Stirling aims to maintain momentum and justify his status as favorite.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Navajo Stirling -325 | Ivan Erslan 260	Navajo Stirling	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Navajo Stirling -3.5 (-190) | Ivan Erslan +3.5 (140)	Navajo Stirling covers (wins by 4 or more points/rounds/KO/Submission)	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 1.5 Rounds (135)	Over 1.5 Rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Navajo Stirling -6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 23%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 39.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Navajo Stirling is favored to win by decision or late stoppage, leveraging his reach and technical striking. However, given the unpredictability of MMA, an Erslan upset via knockout remains a plausible risk.

Predicted Score: Navajo Stirling by Decision (Unanimous), 30-27 on scorecards.