Match Analysis: Pat Brown vs Ivan Duka – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-21
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: bp pulse Live, Solihull, Birmingham, UK
Game Overview
On June 21, 2025, cruiserweight contenders Pat Brown and Ivan Duka will face off in a 6-round boxing match at the bp pulse Live arena in Solihull, Birmingham. This fight is part of the undercard for the high-profile event headlined by Galal Yafai vs Francisco Rodriguez Jr. Pat Brown, a highly touted British prospect with an impressive amateur background, enters the ring for only his second professional bout, while Ivan Duka holds a balanced pro record but is a clear underdog in this contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pat Brown has shown significant promise transitioning from an elite amateur career, winning the ABA Elite championships twice, and has already demonstrated composure under pressure in his pro debut. Ivan Duka's record stands at 5-5 with 3 KOs, indicating inconsistency and less professional experience compared to Brown.
- This is the first professional encounter between Pat Brown and Ivan Duka, with no previous head-to-head meetings recorded.
- No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the match, allowing both to enter in full health.
- The fight takes place at a well-known indoor arena recognized for hosting major boxing events, with a capacity near 16,000 spectators. The event will be broadcast live on DAZN in the UK and Ireland, increasing exposure and pressure on both fighters.
- Pat Brown appears highly motivated, driven by his ambition to follow up his successful pro debut and continue the momentum in his burgeoning career. Ivan Duka, facing a formidable opponent and underdog status, will be motivated to prove himself by upsetting expectations.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pat Brown: -10000, Ivan Duka: 2200 | Pat Brown to win | ★★★★★ 95% |
| Spread | Pat Brown -3.5: -110, Ivan Duka +3.5: -110 | Pat Brown to win by more than 3.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Over/under | Over 4.5 rounds: -120, Under 4.5 rounds: +100 | Under 4.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pat Brown -9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Pat Brown at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Pat Brown is heavily favored to win this bout owing to his superior amateur pedigree, momentum from a successful pro debut, and overwhelming betting support. A decision victory or potentially a late stoppage is expected given the matchup disparity.
Predicted Score: Pat Brown wins by UD (Unanimous Decision) or TKO in round 5