Match Analysis: Pat Brown vs Ivan Duka – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-21
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: bp pulse Live, Solihull, Birmingham, National Exhibition Centre
Game Overview
Pat Brown faces Ivan Duka in a cruiserweight boxing match scheduled for 6 rounds on June 21, 2025. The fight is part of the undercard for Galal Yafai vs Francisco Rodriguez Jr at a high-profile event held at the bp pulse Live arena in Birmingham, known for hosting major boxing events. Pat Brown, a promising British prospect, is stepping into the ring professionally for only his second time, while Ivan Duka is a more experienced cruiserweight contender with a 5-5 record and 3 knockouts.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pat Brown has shown strong promise as a rising talent with an amateur pedigree including two ABA Elite championships and a confident professional debut. Ivan Duka, with a mixed record of 5 wins and 5 losses, has less momentum and fewer notable wins. Brown is perceived as the dominant fighter based on current form and status within the sport.
- There are no prior meetings between Pat Brown and Ivan Duka, making this their first encounter.
- No significant injuries have been reported for either fighter prior to the match.
- The fight takes place at a major boxing venue with a capacity near 16,000 spectators, contributing to a high-energy environment. The bout is part of a well-publicized Matchroom event broadcast live on DAZN, adding to the pressure and motivation for both fighters.
- Pat Brown is highly motivated, keen to advance his professional career with back-to-back fights scheduled close together, reflecting his amateur experience with multiple bouts in short succession. Ivan Duka is motivated to capitalize on his experience and make an impact against a rising star.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pat Brown: -10000, Ivan Duka: +2200 | Pat Brown to win | ★★★★★ 95% |
| Spread | Pat Brown: -5000 to -10000, Ivan Duka: +1600 to +2200 | Pat Brown to win by a wide margin | ★★★★★ 90% |
| Over/under | Over 4.5 rounds: -110, Under 4.5 rounds: -110 | Under 4.5 rounds (fight likely to end early) | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pat Brown -9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Pat Brown at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Pat Brown is heavily favored to win the match given his superior recent form, confidence, and the odds heavily favoring him. Ivan Duka is seen as a significant underdog with a low probability to upset Brown.
Predicted Score: Pat Brown wins by TKO or unanimous decision within 4 rounds