Match Analysis: Chris Padilla vs Ismael Bonfim – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-09
• Time: 12:45 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Lightweight bout between Chris Padilla and Ismael Bonfim at UFC Vegas 111, featuring two orthodox fighters with Padilla slightly taller and longer wingspan. Both have aggressive styles but Bonfim is a -198 favorite on moneyline with strong striking accuracy and defense.

Key Factors to Consider

• Padilla is 16-6 with a gritty, pressure fighting style leading to 16 of 22 fights ending inside the distance. Bonfim is 20-5 with higher significant strike output and defense. Padilla is more aggressive and finishes fights inside distance whereas Bonfim has more consistent striking defense and accuracy.
• No previous direct matchups between Padilla and Bonfim recorded.
• Bonfim recently suffered a first knockout loss in his 14-year career, which may impact confidence and risk taking. Padilla has no reported recent injuries.
• Fight at UFC Apex in Las Vegas with no notable external disruptions; Padilla an underdog with strong mental fortitude having won UFC fights as an underdog previously.
• Padilla eager to continue exceeding expectations, coming off a string of UFC underdog wins, highly motivated to sustain momentum. Bonfim likely motivated to rebound from recent KO loss but may fight more cautiously.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Chris Padilla: +164, Ismael Bonfim: -198	Ismael Bonfim	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Chris Padilla +3.5: -135, Ismael Bonfim -3.5: 100	Ismael Bonfim -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -125, Under 2.5 rounds: -105	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ismael Bonfim -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ismael Bonfim moneyline win

Predicted Score: Ismael Bonfim wins by decision in 3 rounds