Match Analysis: Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-16
• Time: 5:30 AM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, USA

Game Overview

UFC 322 main event title fight between welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena and challenger Islam Makhachev. Jack is a powerful precision boxer with strong knockout potential if he can keep the fight standing, while Islam is a grappling and top-control specialist with elite endurance and takedown ability.

Key Factors to Consider

• Della Maddalena shows high knockout power and striking accuracy, averaging 6.84 significant strikes per minute with 56.6% accuracy. Makhachev uses superior wrestling, averaging 3.20 takedowns per fight with 53.62% accuracy, maintaining pressure and top control throughout.
• No prior direct fights between these two, making tactical matchups and styles key. Makhachev has historically dominated opponents through grappling control, while Della Maddalena succeeds by keeping the fight standing and exploiting striking advantage.
• No reported injuries on either side leading into this high-profile title bout.
• Fight is held at Madison Square Garden, adding hype and pressure but is a neutral venue for both. Both fighters show strong motivation with title on the line and reputation at stake.
• Della Maddalena motivated to defend title aggressively with his boxing; Makhachev motivated to reclaim welterweight belt using his grappling dominance and relentless pace.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: 230, away: -285	Islam Makhachev	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	home: 110, away: -150	Islam Makhachev -5.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over: -135, under: 105	Under 3.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Islam Makhachev -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 3.5 44%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 44% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Islam Makhachev wins by decision or late-round submission due to superior grappling control and cardio, neutralizing Della Maddalena's striking threat.

Predicted Score: Islam Makhachev wins via unanimous decision or submission in round 4 or 5

Match Analysis: Islam Makhachev vs Ilia Topuria – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-26
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: TBD

Game Overview

Islam Makhachev, the reigning UFC Lightweight champion, faces rising contender Ilia Topuria in a high-profile bout. Makhachev is favored due to his superior grappling, experience, and recent dominant performances, while Topuria is known for his striking power and finishing ability but has yet to face a top-tier grappler of Makhachev's caliber.

Key Factors to Consider

• Makhachev has been on a winning streak with decisive submissions and control fights, showing improved striking and conditioning. Topuria has also amassed impressive wins, mostly via knockouts, but against generally less elite competition.
• No previous direct matchup exists between Makhachev and Topuria, making styles and recent form the main prediction drivers.
• No reported recent injuries for either fighter limiting their preparation.
• Fight location and venue details are unavailable, so no significant external influences identified. Both fighters appear well-prepared.
• Makhachev is motivated to defend his title against a dangerous challenger, while Topuria seeks to prove himself by dethroning the champion and elevating his status.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Islam Makhachev: -180, Ilia Topuria: +155	Islam Makhachev	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Makhachev -1.5 rounds: -150, Topuria +1.5 rounds: +130	Makhachev -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 3.5 rounds: +120, Under 3.5 rounds: -140	Under 3.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Islam Makhachev -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Islam Makhachev at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Islam Makhachev to win by decision

Predicted Score: Makhachev wins by decision after 5 rounds

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Islam Makhachev vs. Ilia Topuria Prediction	Islam Makhachev Win	-180	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Christian Natividad vs. Jostin Quilca Prediction	Christian Natividad Win	-1200	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Jaqueline Amorim vs. Mizuki Inoue Prediction	Jaqueline Amorim Win	-425	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +108

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $41.63

Match Analysis: Islam Makhachev vs Max Holloway – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-01
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: Not specified in available data

Game Overview

Hypothetical lightweight bout between Islam Makhachev (UFC's No. 1 pound-for-pound) and Max Holloway (BMF titleholder moving up from featherweight). Makhachev defends elite grappling pedigree; Holloway brings volume striking and cardio. No official bout scheduled per verified sources – Holloway is instead preparing for Dustin Poirier trilogy at UFC 318 on July 19.

Key Factors to Consider

• Makhachev: Dominant 5th-round title defense against Poirier in June 2024. Holloway: Lost featherweight title shot to Topuria in October 2024 but secured BMF belt via KO over Gaethje at UFC 300.
• No direct history. Holloway 0-2 against Poirier; Makhachev beat Oliveira and Poirier in title fights.
• No current injury reports. Holloway's recent lightweight move reduces weight-cut strain.
• Makhachev's Dagestani grappling style poses matchup nightmare for strikers. Holloway's cardio advantage potentially neutralized by Makhachev's control time.
• Makhachev targets GOAT status with title defenses. Holloway seeks legacy-defining win in new weight class.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Makhachev -600, Holloway +425	Makhachev moneyline	★★★★☆ 85%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Islam Makhachev 346%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Islam Makhachev at 346% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 81.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Makhachev by submission (4th round) via superior grappling and positional control. Holloway's striking volume insufficient against elite takedown defense.

Predicted Score: Makhachev by submission (Round 4)

Match Analysis: Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-28
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Octagon (exact location unspecified)

Game Overview

Highly anticipated lightweight title rematch between reigning champion Islam Makhachev (#1 ranked) and surging contender Arman Tsarukyan (#4 ranked). Their first meeting in 2019 saw Makhachev win via unanimous decision (29-28 across all cards) in a grappling-heavy battle.

Key Factors to Consider

• Makhachev (27-1) has dominated the division with elite grappling (60% takedown accuracy) and fight IQ. Tsarukyan (22-3) shows improved striking (4.62 SLpM) and defensive wrestling (78% takedown defense) since their first fight.
• Makhachev 1-0 (2019 decision). First fight metrics: Makhachev landed 2/5 takedowns, Tsarukyan 0/3. Significant strikes were 45-34 favoring Makhachev.
• No reported injuries
• Championship 5-round format favors Makhachev's pacing. Tsarukyan faces pressure in first UFC title fight.
• Makhachev defends belt & legacy. Tsarukyan seeks revenge and first title.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Makhachev -350 / Tsarukyan +285	Makhachev by finish	★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under	Projected 4.5 rounds (estimated -150/+120)	Over 3.5 rounds (-110 estimated)	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Islam Makhachev 183%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Islam Makhachev at 183% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 64.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Makhachev retains via late submission (Rd 4). Tsarukyan's improved striking keeps it competitive early, but champion's grappling & championship experience prove decisive.

Predicted Score: Makhachev def. Tsarukyan via Submission (Arm Triangle) at 3:15 Rd4