Match Analysis: Irina Alekseeva vs Beatriz Mesquita – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 2:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Fight Night, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

The upcoming MMA match features Irina Alekseeva facing Beatriz Mesquita in what will be Mesquita's UFC debut. Alekseeva comes with a UFC record of 5-3 but is coming off two recent losses. Mesquita is a highly skilled ground specialist with a strong Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, considered a favorite despite limited MMA experience at the UFC level.

Key Factors to Consider

• Irina Alekseeva has experience in the UFC with 5 wins and 3 losses, including recent defeats by decision. Beatriz Mesquita, though less experienced in MMA (about 5-0 at regional level), is a decorated grappler and expected to leverage her jiu-jitsu black belt skills to dominate on the ground.
• No previous meetings or head-to-head history exist between Irina Alekseeva and Beatriz Mesquita, making this their first encounter.
• There are no reported injuries for either fighter ahead of this bout.
• The fight takes place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, which is the hometown of Beatriz Mesquita, potentially giving her a motivational edge.
• Mesquita is making her UFC debut in front of a supportive home crowd, with strong motivation to prove herself at the highest level. Alekseeva aims to bounce back from recent losses, adding personal motivation to secure a win.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Beatriz Mesquita: -575, Irina Alekseeva: 425	Beatriz Mesquita	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Beatriz Mesquita: -7.5 -230, Irina Alekseeva: +7.5 165	Beatriz Mesquita to win by more than 7.5 points (dominant decision or finish)	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over: 1.5 -154, Under: 1.5 120	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Irina Alekseeva -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 54%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 54% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 45% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Beatriz Mesquita is likely to win by submission or ground dominance within the first two rounds, given her elite grappling skills and home advantage.

Predicted Score: Beatriz Mesquita wins by submission in Round 1 or early Round 2

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – October 11, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Thomas Petersen vs. Vitor Petrino Prediction	Vitor Petrino	-298	145%
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson Prediction	Under 2.5	150	63%
Irina Alekseeva vs. Beatriz Mesquita Prediction	Under 1.5	120	54%

Combined Odds: +635 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $146.91

Match Analysis: Irina Alekseeva vs Klaudia Syguła – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-21
• Time: 5:00 PM UTC
• Location: Baku Crystal Hall, Baku, Azerbaijan

Game Overview

The bantamweight bout between Irina Alekseeva and Klaudia Sygula at UFC on ABC 8 in Baku features two athletes closely matched in physical attributes but with differing fight styles and experience. Alekseeva, the 34-year-old Russian known as 'Russian Ronda', holds a 5-2 record with a notable striking accuracy and defense, while the 26-year-old Polish fighter Sygula has a 6-2 record with a longer reach but lower striking defense and output. Both fighters share a recent loss to Melissa Mullins, suggesting a competitive parity entering this fight.

Key Factors to Consider

• Irina Alekseeva connects on 3.84 significant strikes per minute at 43% accuracy while defending 48% of strikes; Klaudia Sygula lands fewer strikes at 1.89 per minute with 37% accuracy and defends only 36% of incoming strikes, indicating Alekseeva’s superior striking and defense.
• No prior head-to-head matches between Alekseeva and Sygula have been recorded, however, both share a recent loss to a common opponent, Melissa Mullins, with Alekseeva losing by unanimous decision and Sygula by TKO.
• No publicly reported injuries affecting either fighter ahead of this match.
• The fight takes place at Baku Crystal Hall in Azerbaijan, a neutral venue for both fighters, minimizing home advantage and external environmental factors.
• Alekseeva, being the more experienced and older fighter, may be motivated to assert dominance after a recent decision loss, while Sygula looks to capitalize on her youth and reach advantage to rebound from a TKO defeat.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Irina Alekseeva: -275, Klaudia Sygula: 235	Irina Alekseeva to win	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Irina Alekseeva -1.5 rounds: -120, Klaudia Sygula +1.5 rounds: +100	Irina Alekseeva to win by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -135, Under 2.5 rounds: 105	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Irina Alekseeva -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Alekseeva’s higher striking output, better accuracy, and superior defensive stats, she is favored to win the fight by decision or late stoppage, although Sygula’s physical tools and youth provide upset potential.

Predicted Score: Irina Alekseeva wins by unanimous decision over 3 rounds