Match Analysis: Irina Alekseeva vs Beatriz Mesquita – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 2:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Event – Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

This Bantamweight division prelim fight features Beatriz Mesquita, a highly experienced and dominant grappler from Brazil, against rising Russian contender Irina Alekseeva. Mesquita enters as a strong favorite with significant betting support, reflecting her superior MMA résumé and grappling dominance.

Key Factors to Consider

• Beatriz Mesquita has exhibited consistent dominance in recent bouts, showing strong grappling and control, with multiple wins in 2025 at UFC and LFA levels. Irina Alekseeva, while improving, has less experience and fewer wins against top-tier competition.
• No recorded previous bouts between Mesquita and Alekseeva, making this a form and style matchup rather than historical dominance.
• No known injuries reported for either fighter leading into the match, allowing both to perform at expected levels.
• Fight takes place in Brazil, Beatriz Mesquita's home country, potentially boosting her motivation and crowd support.
• Mesquita aims to extend her dominance and reinforce UFC contender status, while Alekseeva seeks to make a significant UFC statement. Mesquita’s experience at high-level competition increases her motivation to maintain form.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Beatriz Mesquita -575, Irina Alekseeva +425	Beatriz Mesquita	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Beatriz Mesquita -7.5 -230, Irina Alekseeva +7.5 165	Beatriz Mesquita -7.5	★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under	Over 1.5 -154, Under 1.5 120	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Beatriz Mesquita -6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 32%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 32% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bet on Beatriz Mesquita moneyline

Predicted Score: Beatriz Mesquita wins by submission or decision within 2 rounds

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Miguel Trindade vs. Bobo Sacko Prediction	Miguel Trindade Win	-145	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Irina Alekseeva vs. Beatriz Mesquita Prediction	Beatriz Mesquita -7.5	-230	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Julia Polastri vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz Prediction	Julia Polastri Win	-470	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +194

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $58.8

Match Analysis: Irina Alekseeva vs Klaudia Syguła – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-21
• Time: 5:00 PM UTC
• Location: Baku Crystal Hall, Baku, Azerbaijan

Game Overview

The bantamweight bout between Irina Alekseeva and Klaudia Sygula at UFC on ABC 8 in Baku features two evenly matched orthodox fighters standing at 5'8" and competing at 135 lbs. Alekseeva brings a record of 5-2 with a slightly higher significant strikes landed per minute (3.84) and better strike accuracy (43%) compared to Sygula's 1.89 strikes per minute and 37% accuracy. Defensively, Alekseeva allows fewer significant strikes (3.55 vs. 6.00) and has a higher strike defense rate (48% vs. 36%), indicating a durability edge. Both fighters recently lost to the same opponent, Melissa Mullins, but maintain solid career records, making this a competitive match-up.

Key Factors to Consider

• Alekseeva has shown consistency in applying pressure and striking volume with a solid defense, while Sygula tends to have a more cautious striking output but maintains resilience. Both fighters have comparable experience with 7 and 8 total fights respectively.
• No prior head-to-head bouts exist between Alekseeva and Sygula, making this matchup their first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, suggesting both will be at full competitive strength.
• The fight takes place in Baku, Azerbaijan, which may offer slight home advantage to Alekseeva given her European background and the event location, although neither fighter is from Azerbaijan.
• Both fighters seek redemption following recent losses to the same opponent, Melissa Mullins, raising their motivation to rebound strongly and improve their UFC standing.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Irina Alekseeva: -275, Klaudia Sygula: 235	Irina Alekseeva	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Alekseeva -1.5: -140, Sygula +1.5: 120	Alekseeva -1.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -135, Under 2.5 rounds: 105	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Irina Alekseeva -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 23%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Alekseeva's superior striking volume, accuracy, and defensive metrics, combined with her experience and slight home-region advantage, the prediction favors Irina Alekseeva to win by decision or technical striking dominance.

Predicted Score: Irina Alekseeva wins by unanimous decision, 3-0 rounds

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Irina Alekseeva vs. Klaudia Syguła Prediction	Irina Alekseeva Win	-275	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Seok Hyun Ko vs. Oban Elliott Prediction	Oban Elliott Win	-500	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Nazim Sadykhov vs. Nikolas Motta Prediction	Nazim Sadykhov Win	-485	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: -103

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $39.48