Match Analysis: Indiana Hoosiers vs Indiana State Sycamores – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-12
- Time: 10:30 PM UTC
- Location: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
Game Overview
The Indiana Hoosiers host the Indiana State Sycamores, both undefeated at 2-0, but competing at very different competition levels with Indiana a Power Five team and Indiana State from the FCS level. Indiana has demonstrated dominant performances with large-margin wins, while Indiana State has shown resilience but limited competition strength.
Key Factors to Consider
- Indiana Hoosiers have routed their opponents convincingly (56-9 vs Kennesaw State), improving their FPI ranking to 16th with dominant offensive and defensive efficiency. Indiana State showed a comeback win against McKendree but faces a much higher challenge against Indiana, with limited scoring and defensive lapses in previous games.
- Limited recent H2H data at the current competitive level, but historically Power Five vs FCS matchups heavily favor the Power Five team, Indiana, by large margins.
- No significant injuries reported for either team prior to kickoff, boosting confidence in starting lineups.
- The game is played indoors with favorable weather conditions (81°F, no rain, light wind), minimizing environmental impact on play.
- Indiana seeks to maintain its playoff trajectory and continue momentum, while Indiana State aims to prove competitiveness but is likely motivated more for experience than upset.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers -5000, Indiana State +1500 | Indiana Hoosiers | ★★★★★ 98% |
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers -48.5 -110, Indiana State +48.5 -110 | Indiana Hoosiers -48.5 | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Over/under | Over 59.5 -110, Under 59.5 -110 | Over 59.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 59.5 34% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 59.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Indiana Hoosiers will dominate and cover the large spread against Indiana State, with a high-scoring game exceeding the total points line.
Predicted Score: Indiana Hoosiers 56 – Indiana State 10