Match Analysis: Duke Blue Devils vs Indiana St Sycamores – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 14, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC
Game Overview
Duke Blue Devils (3-0) host Indiana State Sycamores (2-1) in a non-conference matchup at one of college basketball's most intimidating venues. Duke is favored by 36.5 points, reflecting their dominant start to the season and significant talent advantage. This is a classic David vs. Goliath matchup with Duke's elite offensive efficiency and defensive prowess facing a mid-major program.
Key Factors to Consider
- Duke has been dominant, outscoring opponents by an average of 35.7 points per game (114-59 vs Army, 75-60 vs Texas). They shoot 49.2% from the field, average 94.7 PPG, and maintain 77.2% free throw shooting. Indiana State is competitive at mid-major level with a 2-1 record but averaged only 64-55 in their last game. Duke's three-game winning streak includes road dominance, while Indiana State won their last game by just 9 points at home against a lower-tier opponent.
- No prior head-to-head matchup data available between these programs in recent seasons. This is a significant experience and talent gap mismatch.
- No significant injuries reported for Duke. Indiana State roster status appears intact. Wilkins noted to redshirt for Duke but won't impact this matchup.
- Cameron Indoor Stadium is one of the most difficult environments for visiting teams in college basketball. Duke has built a roster with minimal transfer portal losses, maintaining core players like Isaiah Evans, Caleb Foster, Maliq Brown, and Patrick Ngongba II. Indiana State is traveling to one of the nation's toughest places to compete.
- Duke is positioning themselves as ACC and national title contenders with a perfect record to protect. Indiana State is attempting to gain respect and tournament credentials through quality losses or upsets. However, the motivation disparity heavily favors Duke's championship aspirations.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Duke -600 / Indiana State N/A | Duke | ★★★★★ 94% |
| Spread | Duke -36.5 -114 / Indiana State +36.5 -106 | Duke -36.5 | ★★★★☆ 73% |
| Over/under | Over 163.5 -110 / Under 163.5 -110 | Under 163.5 | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 163.5 18% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 163.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Duke will dominate this matchup, covering the large spread comfortably while the total stays under due to Duke's defensive intensity and game flow control. Expect Duke to establish dominance early and maintain a 20-30 point lead throughout the second half.
Predicted Score: Duke 95, Indiana State 58 (Duke wins 37)