Match Analysis: Illinois Fighting Illini vs Ohio State Buckeyes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-11
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Illinois
Game Overview
No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) visit No. 17 Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1) in a Big Ten clash. Ohio State is the heavy favorite with a dominant defense, while Illinois has shown inconsistency but strong overall form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ohio State is undefeated with a 5-0 record, showcasing the top defense in the nation. Illinois is 5-1, performing well but inconsistent offensively against strong defenses.
- Ohio State has dominated recent matchups and consistently covers the spread against teams like Illinois, holding a 4-0-1 ATS record. Past games suggest a strong advantage for Ohio State.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of October 9, 2025, suggesting both squads will field near full-strength teams.
- Venue is Illinois home stadium, but Ohio Stateβs elite defensive performance likely neutralizes home advantage. Weather conditions not expected to significantly impact the game.
- Ohio State, as undefeated national champions, motivated to maintain dominance; Illinois motivated as underdog to prove competitiveness but with less at stake.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Illinois +480, Ohio State -650 | Ohio State Buckeyes | β β β β β 85% |
Spread | Illinois +14.5 (-114), Ohio State -14.5 (-106) | Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5 | β β β β β 80% |
Over/under | Over 49.5 (-110), Under 49.5 (-110) | Under 49.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 49.5 34% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ohio State Buckeyes to win straight up and cover the 14.5 point spread with the total points to go under 49.5
Predicted Score: Ohio State 28 – 10 Illinois