Match Analysis: Ilian Bouafia vs Neemias Santana – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-13
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Undisclosed Venue, Dana White's Contender Series
Game Overview
The matchup features Ilian Bouafia, a sharp and technically improving striker known for his powerful straight left, versus Neemias Santana, a slick kickboxer with solid low kicks and good power but a defensive tendency of keeping his hands low. Both fighters are strong strikers with potential UFC futures.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bouafia has shown more noticeable improvement recently and is considered more technical; Santana offers strong endurance and power but risks exposure with defensive gaps.
- No known previous head-to-head matchups between Bouafia and Santana; this will be their first encounter.
- No reported injuries for either fighter heading into the bout.
- Fight takes place on Dana White's Contender Series platform, which may increase motivation especially for Bouafia, who is viewed as highly technical and eager to impress.
- Both fighters are motivated to secure UFC contracts, but Bouafia's noted technical improvements suggest higher preparation and mental readiness.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ilian Bouafia: -210, Neemias Santana: 170 | Ilian Bouafia | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Bouafia -1.5 rounds: -150, Santana +1.5 rounds: 130 | Bouafia -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: 120, Under 2.5 rounds: -140 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ilian Bouafia -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Ilian Bouafia at -4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ilian Bouafia to win by decision
Predicted Score: Bouafia wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds