Match Analysis: Ilian Bouafia vs Neemias Santana – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-12
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas
Game Overview
This middleweight bout between Ilian Bouafia and Neemias Santana is featured on Dana White’s Contender Series Season 9, Week 1. Bouafia is undefeated at 6-0 and known for his striking prowess and knockout power, while Santana, with a record of 7-2-1, brings more experience but is shorter in height and reach. The fight is significant as Bouafia seeks to continue his winning streak and earn a UFC contract.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ilian Bouafia trains with Boxing Squad in France, focusing on striking and utilizing his considerable height and reach advantage effectively. Santana has more fights under his belt and has shown resilience and versatility but lacks Bouafia's physical advantages.
- This is their first scheduled bout, so no direct head-to-head history exists. Bouafia holds a perfect record, while Santana's experience includes more losses and draws.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into this bout.
- The fight takes place in the UFC APEX, a neutral venue that favors neither fighter. Bouafia, fighting close to home country France, might experience slight crowd or motivational advantage. The bout is under high scrutiny due to its status as a contract-deciding fight.
- Bouafia has high motivation to secure a UFC contract with an undefeated record and impressive knockouts, while Santana aims to leverage his experience to upset the prospect and gain his own entry into the UFC roster.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ilian Bouafia: -210, Neemias Santana: 170 | Ilian Bouafia | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Ilian Bouafia -1.5: -110, Neemias Santana +1.5: -110 | Ilian Bouafia -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: -120, Under 1.5 rounds: 100 | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ilian Bouafia -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Ilian Bouafia at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ilian Bouafia is favored to win due to his unbeaten record, height, reach, and knockout power. The fight will likely be decided on the feet, where Bouafia excels in striking. Santana may attempt to exploit experience and attempt grappling exchanges to neutralize Bouafia’s range.
Predicted Score: Ilian Bouafia wins by TKO or KO in Round 2