Match Analysis: Islam Makhachev vs Ilia Topuria – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-26
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: TBD

Game Overview

Islam Makhachev, the reigning UFC Lightweight champion, faces rising contender Ilia Topuria in a high-profile bout. Makhachev is favored due to his superior grappling, experience, and recent dominant performances, while Topuria is known for his striking power and finishing ability but has yet to face a top-tier grappler of Makhachev's caliber.

Key Factors to Consider

• Makhachev has been on a winning streak with decisive submissions and control fights, showing improved striking and conditioning. Topuria has also amassed impressive wins, mostly via knockouts, but against generally less elite competition.
• No previous direct matchup exists between Makhachev and Topuria, making styles and recent form the main prediction drivers.
• No reported recent injuries for either fighter limiting their preparation.
• Fight location and venue details are unavailable, so no significant external influences identified. Both fighters appear well-prepared.
• Makhachev is motivated to defend his title against a dangerous challenger, while Topuria seeks to prove himself by dethroning the champion and elevating his status.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Islam Makhachev: -180, Ilia Topuria: +155	Islam Makhachev	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Makhachev -1.5 rounds: -150, Topuria +1.5 rounds: +130	Makhachev -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 3.5 rounds: +120, Under 3.5 rounds: -140	Under 3.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Islam Makhachev -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Islam Makhachev at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Islam Makhachev to win by decision

Predicted Score: Makhachev wins by decision after 5 rounds

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Islam Makhachev vs. Ilia Topuria Prediction	Islam Makhachev Win	-180	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Christian Natividad vs. Jostin Quilca Prediction	Christian Natividad Win	-1200	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Jaqueline Amorim vs. Mizuki Inoue Prediction	Jaqueline Amorim Win	-425	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +108

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $41.63

Match Analysis: Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-29
• Time: 4:30 AM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

This highly anticipated lightweight title bout at UFC 317 features Ilia Topuria, the former UFC featherweight champion with an undefeated record and recent knockout streak, against Charles Oliveira, the experienced former lightweight champion ranked No. 2. Both fighters bring contrasting styles: Topuria with his explosive striking and perfect record, Oliveira with his seasoned grappling and resilience. The bout is set for June 28, 2025, live from T-Mobile Arena.

Key Factors to Consider

• Topuria enters with a perfect MMA record and consecutive knockout wins, showcasing powerful and precise striking. Oliveira, despite recent setbacks, has vast experience in the lightweight division, known for his dynamic grappling and submission skills.
• This is their first direct matchup. Analytical insight from past opponents suggests Oliveira's success may hinge on neutralizing Topuria's aggressive striking early and leveraging ground game opportunities.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter leading into the bout. Both appear fully fit and ready to compete.
• The fight takes place at T-Mobile Arena, a major venue that can influence fighter motivation and performance due to high stakes and large audience pressure. Both fighters have expressed strong intent, with Oliveira promising to aggressively push forward.
• Topuria is motivated by his undefeated streak and desire to claim the lightweight title. Oliveira seeks redemption and to reclaim his status as champion, motivated to overcome a favored opponent and demonstrate his grit.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Ilia Topuria: -455, Charles Oliveira: 350	Ilia Topuria	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Ilia Topuria: -5.5 -370, Charles Oliveira: 5.5 250	Ilia Topuria by more than 5.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -145, Under 1.5: 114	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ilia Topuria -15%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Topuria's dominant striking and momentum, combined with Oliveira's experience and grappling threat, the fight is expected to be competitive but with Topuria favored to win by decision or late stoppage. Oliveira's ability to impose a grappling-heavy strategy could extend the fight, but Topuria's power and precision present a significant challenge.

Predicted Score: Ilia Topuria wins via late 3rd round TKO or unanimous decision