Match Analysis: Hussein Salem vs Izzeddine Al Derbani – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: The Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Game Overview
Hussein Salem (12-6) faces Izzeddine Al Derbani (15-5) in a featherweight bout at the PFL MENA 3 Semifinals, part of the Professional Fighters League regional tournament in Riyadh. This fight carries high stakes as winners advance towards the PFL MENA Finals with a chance to compete for a $500,000 prize. Al Derbani replaced an alternate and enters with slightly better recent form and odds favoring him to win.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both fighters have solid professional records, with Al Derbani holding a 15-5 record versus Salem’s 12-6. Al Derbani’s more consistent winning rate and experience in the regional circuit slightly tilt performance advantage in his favor.
- No documented previous encounters found between Salem and Al Derbani, indicating no direct head-to-head history to factor into prediction.
- No reported injuries or medical issues affecting either fighter ahead of the match.
- The bout occurs at a neutral venue, The Arena in Riyadh with home region advantages shared as both fighters are from the MENA region. No major external disruptions reported.
- Both fighters are highly motivated, competing for a spot in the PFL MENA Finals and a lucrative prize. Al Derbani, as an alternate stepping up, may have extra motivation to prove himself, while Salem looks to capitalize on his established standing.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hussein Salem: 116, Izzeddine Al Derbani: -138 | Izzeddine Al Derbani | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Hussein Salem +1.5: EVEN, Izzeddine Al Derbani -1.5: -110 | Izzeddine Al Derbani -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -120, Under 2.5 rounds: +100 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Izzeddine Al Derbani -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Izzeddine Al Derbani at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Izzeddine Al Derbani is predicted to win the bout due to his superior odds, recent form, and slightly better record, with an estimated tighter margin given the competitive nature of both fighters.
Predicted Score: Izzeddine Al Derbani wins by decision or late stoppage in under 3 rounds