Match Analysis: Ajax vs Heracles Almelo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-24
- Time: 2:45 PM UTC
- Location: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Game Overview
Ajax hosts Heracles Almelo in the third round of the 2025-26 Eredivisie season. Ajax currently sit sixth with 4 points after a win and a draw, demonstrating solid attacking form. Heracles Almelo are bottom of the table after two heavy losses and a red card in their last game, indicating struggles both defensively and in discipline.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ajax showed strong offensive performance with 4 goals across two league matches and have been prolific in scoring recently. Heracles have conceded 8 goals in two games and face defensive vulnerabilities, especially after a key player was sent off in their last match.
- Ajax hold a dominant record over Heracles Almelo with 7 wins and 1 draw in their last 8 meetings. Ajax has been unbeaten against Heracles in recent encounters.
- No major injury information available for either side from the current data, implying both teams may have their squads intact.
- The game is played at Ajax's home ground, Johan Cruijff Arena, giving them the home advantage in terms of familiar surroundings and crowd support.
- Ajax is highly motivated to end their title drought and assert dominance early in the season, while Heracles are desperate to gain points to escape the relegation zone and recover from a poor start.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ajax: -600, Heracles_Almelo: 1300, Draw: 625 | Ajax Win | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Ajax: -2.25 at 1.02, Heracles_Almelo: +2.25 at -1.22 | Ajax -2.25 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over_3.5: -1.08, Under_3.5: -1.12 | Under 3.5 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ajax -14% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ajax is strongly favored to win due to superior form, better squad quality, home advantage, and past dominance over Heracles Almelo.
Predicted Score: 3-0