Match Analysis: Hayato Tsutsumi vs Qais Ashfaq – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: ANB Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Game Overview
The boxing match between Hayato Tsutsumi and Qais Ashfaq is set for 10 rounds in the Super Featherweight class. Tsutsumi is the clear favorite with a strong recent activity record, having fought multiple times in the last 15 months, while Ashfaq has a long period of inactivity, not having fought in over 18 months. The fight will take place in Riyadh, providing a neutral venue setting.
Key Factors to Consider
- Hayato Tsutsumi has been more active recently, fighting every five months on average with an average bout length of 4.7 rounds, demonstrating consistent activity and ring readiness. In contrast, Qais Ashfaq's fights have been sparse, averaging almost two years between bouts with longer fights averaging 8 rounds, possibly indicating endurance but less current sharpness.
- There are no recorded head-to-head matches between Tsutsumi and Ashfaq. This will be their first professional encounter.
- No specific injury reports are available for either fighter leading up to the match.
- The match being held in Riyadh is neutral ground for both fighters, which may impact crowd support but should have minimal effect on the fighters' performance. Tsutsumi's recent fights in Japan contrast with Ashfaq's long layoff period, possibly affected by less access to competition or training disruptions.
- Tsutsumi appears motivated to make a statement abroad, enhancing his international profile. Ashfaq may be motivated to prove himself after a prolonged absence, aiming for a comeback or resurgence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hayato Tsutsumi: -15000, Qais Ashfaq: 2000 | Hayato Tsutsumi | ★★★★★ 95% |
| Over/under | over_5.5_rounds: -115, under_5.5_rounds: -115 | Under 5.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hayato Tsutsumi -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 5.5 31% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 5.5 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Hayato Tsutsumi is strongly favored to win given his recent activity, superior ring readiness, and heavy moneyline odds advantage. The prediction is a decision or late-round stoppage victory for Tsutsumi.
Predicted Score: Hayato Tsutsumi wins by stoppage between rounds 4 and 6