Match Analysis: Hayato Tsutsumi vs Qais Ashfaq – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-16
• Time: 3:00 PM UTC
• Location: ANB Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Game Overview

The matchup between Hayato Tsutsumi and Qais Ashfaq is set for 10 rounds in the super featherweight division. Tsutsumi is favored heavily due to recent form, activity, and aggressive style, while Ashfaq brings technical skill and patience but has been inactive for over 1.5 years.

Key Factors to Consider

• Tsutsumi has fought regularly, about every 5.5 months recently, with bouts averaging about 4.7 rounds. Ashfaq’s activity is considerably lower, fighting roughly every 2 years with longer fights averaging 8 rounds.
• No recorded head-to-head fights between Tsutsumi and Ashfaq. Styles suggest Tsutsumi to push pace early, Ashfaq to use experience and patience later.
• No publicly reported injuries for either fighter ahead of this bout.
• Fight held at neutral venue ANB Arena in Riyadh may slightly favor Tsutsumi given recent activity and momentum, but no significant external disruptions expected.
• Tsutsumi motivated to maintain rising status with consistent activity; Ashfaq eager to prove himself after lengthy inactivity.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Hayato_Tsutsumi: -15000, Qais_Ashfaq: 2000	Hayato Tsutsumi	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Hayato Tsutsumi -5.5 rounds, +100; Qais Ashfaq +5.5 rounds, -120	Hayato Tsutsumi -5.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under	over_5.5: -115, under_5.5: -115	Over 5.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Hayato Tsutsumi -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 5.5 22%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 5.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Hayato Tsutsumi to win by controlling pace early and securing victory within 7 rounds.

Predicted Score: Hayato Tsutsumi wins via unanimous decision or TKO around round 6 or 7