Match Analysis: Arijan Topallaj vs Hassan Kayani – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: OKTAGON MMA Event, Germany
Game Overview
Arijan Topallaj and Hassan Kayani face off in a Catchweight bout on the prelims of OKTAGON 78. Topallaj enters as a heavy favorite with strong recent form and superior striking, while Kayani is an underdog with less consistent performances.
Key Factors to Consider
- Topallaj has shown significant improvement over his last five bouts, boasting a higher striking accuracy and takedown defense compared to Kayani. Kayani's recent fights show vulnerability against aggressive strikers.
- No previous head-to-head meetings between Topallaj and Kayani exist, making this their first encounter.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, allowing both to compete at full capacity.
- The fight takes place in Germany, which likely benefits Topallaj given fan support and less travel fatigue compared to Kayani.
- Topallaj is coming off an impressive run that could catapult him higher in the ranks. Kayani may be motivated to upset a heavy favorite but his underdog status could pressure his performance negatively.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -500, away: +375 | Arijan Topallaj | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | home: -1.5 (-150), away: +1.5 (+130) | Arijan Topallaj -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | over_1.5_rounds: -110, under_1.5_rounds: -110 | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arijan Topallaj -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Arijan Topallaj at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Arijan Topallaj to win on the moneyline
Predicted Score: Arijan Topallaj wins by decision or late finish in round 2 or 3