Match Analysis: Kauê Fernandes vs Harry Hardwick – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Accor Arena, Paris
Game Overview
Featherweight champion Harry Hardwick steps up on short notice to fight Kauê Fernandes at UFC Paris, moving up a weight class for his UFC debut. Fernandes, with a 10-2 MMA record, was originally set to face Fares Ziam but now meets the Cage Warriors star. This fight features contrasting preparation times and experience in different divisions.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fernandes holds a 10-2 record, showing solid experience in lightweight with consistent performances. Hardwick, at 13-3-1, comes off a recent Cage Warriors featherweight title defense and a strong technical skillset but is moving up in weight and has less time to prepare.
- No previous head-to-head matchups exist between Fernandes and Hardwick, making this their first encounter.
- No reported injuries for either fighter, but Hardwick’s short notice entry may impact his peak physical condition and preparation.
- Hardwick’s quick turnaround and weight class jump are significant external pressures; the fight being in Paris at the Accor Arena may favor Fernandes due to better preparation.
- Hardwick is highly motivated in his UFC debut to establish himself at a higher level and prove his versatility by moving up in weight. Fernandes aims to continue his winning momentum and capitalize on the short notice factor against Hardwick.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fernandes: -160, Hardwick: +140 | Kauê Fernandes | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Fernandes -1.5 (-150), Hardwick +1.5 (+130) | Fernandes -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 -205, Under 2.5 +177 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kauê Fernandes -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 66% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 66% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Kauê Fernandes to win by decision
Predicted Score: Fernandes wins via unanimous decision after 3 rounds