Match Analysis: Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Chris Barnett – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Game Overview
The UFC 321 heavyweight bout between Hamdy Abdelwahab and Chris Barnett features Abdelwahab, an Egyptian wrestling standout with a strong recent focus to regain momentum after suspensions, taking on the fan-favorite Chris Barnett, a durable and experienced fighter with a diverse striking and grappling background. Abdelwahab is favored due to his wrestling and recent activity, while Barnett brings unpredictability and a solid striking pedigree.
Key Factors to Consider
- Abdelwahab holds a 6-1 professional record with a UFC record of 1-1, demonstrating solid wrestling and recent activity despite interruptions. Barnett has a more extensive career at 23-9 with UFC experience but was recently TKO'd at UFC 308, showing some vulnerability. Abdelwahab's recent matches suggest improving form, while Barnett is a live underdog known for entertaining performances.
- This is their first meeting, so no direct head-to-head data is available.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, suggesting both are likely to compete at full health.
- The fight takes place in Abu Dhabi, which may favor Abdelwahab given proximity and crowd support, as well as his recent fights in the region. Both fighters have expressed motivation to impress, with Abdelwahab particularly focused on active fighting schedules to climb rankings.
- Abdelwahab is highly motivated to make up for lost time after prior suspensions and aims to climb the heavyweight rankings quickly, showing eagerness to fight anyone. Barnett, returning from a recent first-round TKO loss, looks to redeem himself and maintain his UFC tenure.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hamdy Abdelwahab: -455, Chris Barnett: 350 | Hamdy Abdelwahab | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Hamdy Abdelwahab: -7.5 -145, Chris Barnett: 7.5 105 | Hamdy Abdelwahab by more than 7.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: -175, Under 1.5 rounds: 135 | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hamdy Abdelwahab 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 -3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Hamdy Abdelwahab at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Hamdy Abdelwahab is predicted to win by decision, using his wrestling and aggressive striking to control the fight. Chris Barnett remains a dangerous underdog with striking skills, but Abdelwahab's recent momentum and physical style give him the edge.
Predicted Score: Abdelwahab wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds