Match Analysis: Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Mohammed Usman – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-21
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Baku Crystal Hall, Baku, Azerbaijan
Game Overview
Hamdy Abdelwahab and Mohammed Usman face off in a UFC Heavyweight prelims bout at UFC Fight Night in Baku. Abdelwahab enters undefeated with a 6-0-0 record, physically strong with 264 lbs and a 72-inch reach. Usman brings more experience with an 11-4-0 record, weighing 239 lbs but possessing a longer 79-inch reach. Both fighters have similar striking output rates, but Abdelwahab shows higher accuracy and better defense metrics overall.
Key Factors to Consider
- Abdelwahab is undefeated (6-0-0) and connects on 51% of significant strikes with a strong defense allowing 3.87 significant strikes per minute. Usman has more fights (11-4-0), connects on 36% of strikes, and allows 4.41 significant strikes per minute. Abdelwahab's power and accuracy give him an edge in striking efficiency.
- No known previous encounters between Hamdy Abdelwahab and Mohammed Usman have been recorded, making this their first meeting.
- No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the match.
- The fight takes place at Baku Crystal Hall in Azerbaijan, which is a neutral venue for both fighters. The event is part of UFC Fight Night on June 21, 2025.
- Abdelwahab seeks to maintain his undefeated record and establish himself as a rising heavyweight force. Usman aims to leverage his experience to secure a crucial win to boost his standing in the division.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hamdy_Abdelwahab: -160, Mohammed_Usman: 140 | Hamdy Abdelwahab to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Hamdy_Abdelwahab: -1.0, Mohammed_Usman: +1.0 | Hamdy Abdelwahab to cover -1.0 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over_2.5: -220, Under_2.5: 180 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hamdy Abdelwahab -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 96% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 96% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 53.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Hamdy Abdelwahab is favored to win due to his undefeated record, superior striking accuracy, and defensive capabilities. The bout is expected to be competitive, but Abdelwahab's physicality and efficiency should secure him the victory.
Predicted Score: Hamdy Abdelwahab wins by decision or late round finish within 3 rounds