Match Analysis: Hadji Ndiaye vs Wojciech Kawa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-14
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: ERGO Arena, Gdansk/Sopot, Poland
Game Overview
Opening bout of XTB KSW 107 featuring El Hadji Ndiaye vs Wojciech Kawa. Ndiaye (6-3) is a decision specialist, while Kawa (8-3) has a strong KO/TKO record. Both fighters recently weighed in at around 155 lbs (70 kg).
Key Factors to Consider
- Hadji Ndiaye: 6 wins (5 by decision, 1 KO/TKO), 3 losses; primarily a technical striker and grappler with resilience in longer fights. Wojciech Kawa: 8 wins (6 by KO/TKO, 2 by decision), 3 losses; aggressive finisher with clear knockout power.
- No previous fight between Ndiaye and Kawa. Their styles contrast sharply; Kawa is more likely to seek the knockout, while Ndiaye prefers to outlast opponents on the scorecards.
- No publicized injuries reported for either fighter leading into bout.
- Event is in Poland, which may favor Polish fighter Wojciech Kawa with home crowd support. Both fighters are in similar weight and fitness shape.
- High for both as opening bout of a major KSW event. Ndiaye seeks to extend his win streak, while Kawa aims to return to winning ways with a highlight-reel finish.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ndiaye: -120, Kawa: -110 | Wojciech Kawa | ★★★☆☆ 61% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Wojciech Kawa -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Wojciech Kawa at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Wojciech Kawa by TKO/KO in rounds 1 or 2. Kawa’s knockout power and home advantage outweigh Ndiaye’s durability and decision skill set, though Ndiaye could drag the fight deep if he survives early pressure. Kawa is favored in betting markets as well.
Predicted Score: Wojciech Kawa wins by KO/TKO, round 2