Match Analysis: Gustavo Sousa vs Gustavo Guilherme – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Brasília, DF, Brazil
Game Overview
This is an upcoming MMA bout in the Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) between Gustavo Sousa and Gustavo Guilherme. The fight is scheduled for November 8, 2025, in Brasília, Brazil. Both fighters are Brazilian, with Sousa holding a perfect 4-0 record and Guilherme at 3-2. The match is expected to be a competitive middleweight contest, with Sousa favored by oddsmakers.
Key Factors to Consider
- Gustavo Sousa is undefeated (4-0), with all wins by decision, indicating strong consistency and technical ability. Gustavo Guilherme has a 3-2 record, with two wins by submission and one by decision. Guilherme’s losses suggest vulnerability, but his submission skills could pose a threat. Sousa’s experience in decision wins may give him an edge in a close fight.
- There is no recorded head-to-head history between these two fighters. This is their first meeting.
- No recent injury reports are available for either fighter.
- The fight takes place in Brasília, Brazil, which is neutral territory for both fighters. The event is part of LFA 221, a well-organized regional promotion. Both fighters are expected to be in peak condition.
- Sousa is looking to maintain his undefeated record and potentially move up in the rankings. Guilherme is aiming to rebound from recent losses and prove himself against a top prospect.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gustavo Sousa: -200, Gustavo Guilherme: 150 | Gustavo Sousa | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | over: 125, under: -165 | Under | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gustavo Sousa 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 -0% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Gustavo Sousa at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Gustavo Sousa is favored to win by decision, given his undefeated record and consistent performance. Guilherme’s submission threat is a factor, but Sousa’s technical skills and experience in decision wins make him the likely winner. The fight is expected to go the distance, with Sousa controlling the pace and outpointing Guilherme.
Predicted Score: Gustavo Sousa wins by decision (30-27)