Match Analysis: Regivaldo Carvalho vs Gustavo Pintos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Foxwoods Resort Casino, Mashantucket, Connecticut, United States
Game Overview
The fight between Regivaldo Carvalho and Gustavo Pintos is a featherweight bout scheduled as part of the LFA 222 event on November 15, 2025. The match is set for 3 rounds at 145 lbs (66 kg) and will take place at Foxwoods Resort Casino. Carvalho, a 31-year-old Brazilian fighter, holds an 11-5 record with a balanced distribution of wins by KO, submission, and decision. Pintos, a 33-year-old Uruguayan fighter, is undefeated with a 9-0 record, known for a high KO rate and a winning streak.
Key Factors to Consider
- Regivaldo Carvalho has 11 wins with a fairly even mix of 5 KO/TKOs, 5 submissions, and 1 decision, but has 5 losses, none by decision. Gustavo Pintos is undefeated at 9-0 with 7 KOs and 2 decisions; he has no losses, indicating strong recent performance and finishing ability.
- There is no direct head-to-head history between the two fighters, but Pintos holds a perfect undefeated record compared to Carvalho’s 5 losses. Their style differences will be critical, with Carvalho’s submissions versus Pintos’ KO power.
- No explicit injury reports are available for either fighter leading up to this match, suggesting both are entering the bout in full health.
- The fight is part of a major LFA event at Foxwoods Resort Casino with live broadcast on UFC Fight Pass. Carvalho has had a break between fights which may negatively impact his fitness and competitive tone, while Pintos has momentum with a winning streak. Both made weight successfully at 146 lbs.
- Pintos aims to extend his undefeated streak and leverage his KO power to dominate at featherweight. Carvalho seeks to rebound from his losses and showcase his versatile finishing skills, including submissions.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gustavo_Pintos: -165, Regivaldo_Carvalho: 125 | Gustavo Pintos to win | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Pintos: -1.5, Carvalho: +1.5 | Gustavo Pintos -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | over_1.5: 105, under_1.5: -135 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gustavo Pintos -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Gustavo Pintos is favored to win given his undefeated record, recent winning momentum, and odds advantages. His KO power and unblemished record suggest a high probability to finish the fight, though Carvalho’s experience and submission skills present a threat, especially if the fight goes beyond the first round.
Predicted Score: Gustavo Pintos wins by KO/TKO in Round 2