Match Analysis: Gustavo Sousa vs Gustavo Guilherme – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-08
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: LFA 221 Venue

Game Overview

Gustavo Sousa faces Gustavo Guilherme at LFA 221, a competitive MMA lightweight bout with Sousa favored on the moneyline. Sousa demonstrates slightly better recent form, power striking, and experience, while Guilherme offers strong grappling and youth advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

• Sousa has shown more consistent recent wins and finishing ability, while Guilherme’s results are mixed but displays strong submission skills.
• No direct prior professional fights found between Sousa and Guilherme, limiting direct matchup impact.
• No reported injuries or recent health issues affecting either fighter ahead of the bout.
• Fight takes place at LFA 221 with neutral venue and no travel or altitude factors significantly favoring either fighter.
• Sousa is motivated to maintain his favored status and momentum, while Guilherme aims to upset and improve ranking, potentially motivating an aggressive fight.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Sousa: -200, Guilherme: +150	Sousa	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Sousa -1.5 rounds: -150, Guilherme +1.5 rounds: +130	Sousa -1.5 rounds (win before Round 2)	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: +125, Under 1.5 rounds: -165	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Gustavo Sousa 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Gustavo Sousa at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline win by Gustavo Sousa

Predicted Score: Sousa wins via TKO in Round 1