Match Analysis: Bragantino-SP vs Grêmio – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-04
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Bragança Paulista, Brazil
Game Overview
Bragantino-SP hosts Grêmio in a key Brazilian Serie A clash. Bragantino is slight favorite due to home advantage and better recent form, while Grêmio has struggled on the road but remains dangerous on counterattack.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bragantino has shown decent recent form scoring 1-2 goals per match and conceding slightly. Grêmio has been inconsistent away and less prolific offensively in recent games.
- Recent H2H have been tight, with draws common and marginal advantage to Bragantino at home. Last few meetings ended mostly 1-1 draws or low scoring matches.
- No major injury concerns reported for either side, both teams have near full squads available.
- Home crowd support favors Bragantino. Weather forecast is mild with no adverse conditions expected.
- Bragantino fights for top half placement, currently pushing to stabilize league position; Grêmio aims to avoid relegation zone pressure, adding defensive caution.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | 105 | Bragantino-SP | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | -0.25 -128 | Bragantino-SP -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | 2.25 -122 (Over), 2.25 102 (Under) | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Bragantino-SP 9% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bragantino moneyline win
Predicted Score: 1-0