Match Analysis: Roman Kopylov vs Gregory Rodrigues – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden

Game Overview

Roman Kopylov and Gregory Rodrigues are set to face off in a middleweight bout at UFC 322, scheduled for November 15, 2025, at Madison Square Garden. Both fighters are ranked in the middleweight division, with Kopylov holding a record of 14-4 and Rodrigues at 17-6. The fight is part of the prelims and is expected to be a striking-heavy contest, with both fighters showing strong offensive and defensive stats.

Key Factors to Consider

• Roman Kopylov lands 4.74 significant strikes per minute with a 50% accuracy rate, while Gregory Rodrigues lands 5.54 significant strikes per minute with a 51% accuracy rate. Kopylov defends 53% of significant strikes, whereas Rodrigues defends 50%. Rodrigues has a higher takedown success rate (38%) and takedown defense (90%) compared to Kopylov. Kopylov attempts more submissions (0.7 finishes per 15 minutes) than Rodrigues (0.3 finishes per 15 minutes).
• This is the first meeting between Roman Kopylov and Gregory Rodrigues. No previous fights or direct matchups exist.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the event.
• The fight is taking place at Madison Square Garden, a neutral venue. Both fighters are in their prime, with no significant external factors affecting their performance.
• Both fighters are motivated to secure a win and improve their rankings in the middleweight division. Rodrigues has expressed confidence in his recent performances and is looking to continue his momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gregory Rodrigues: -185, Roman Kopylov: 154	Gregory Rodrigues	Not available
Spread	Gregory Rodrigues: -3.5, Roman Kopylov: 3.5	Gregory Rodrigues -3.5	Not available
Over/under	Over: 1.5, Under: 1.5	Over 1.5	Not available

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Gregory Rodrigues -6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Gregory Rodrigues is favored to win this bout due to his higher striking output, better takedown success, and strong defensive skills. However, Kopylov's submission attempts and solid striking accuracy make him a dangerous opponent. The fight is likely to be close, but Rodrigues' edge in takedowns and overall striking should give him the advantage.

Predicted Score: Gregory Rodrigues wins by decision or TKO

Match Analysis: Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-28
• Time: 1:30 AM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

The UFC 317 prelims feature a middleweight bout between Jack Hermansson and Gregory Rodrigues. Hermansson is a seasoned fighter with a solid record but has struggled with recent inactivity. Rodrigues, younger and more active recently, blends a grappling background with aggressive striking, making this a compelling stylistic clash with potential for a high-paced fight.

Key Factors to Consider

• Hermansson has a record of 24-8 MMA (11-6 UFC) with longer average fight durations (3.6 rounds) indicating endurance and a capacity to go deeper into fights. Rodrigues (16-6 MMA, 7-3 UFC) fights more frequently, averaging every 5 months 25 days, with shorter fights averaging 2.4 rounds, reflecting a more high-intensity, pressure-based style.
• This is the first meeting between Jack Hermansson and Gregory Rodrigues, so no direct head-to-head history exists. Both fighters have proven themselves against competitive opponents in the UFC middleweight division.
• No recent injuries reported for either fighter, although Hermansson's extended inactivity (last fought over 1 year ago) could affect his performance.
• The fight takes place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas as part of UFC 317 undercard, with live audience and significant media exposure. Rodrigues’s recent activity may give him an edge in conditioning.
• Rodrigues is coming off a mixed recent run but has shown a more complete game and is motivated to rebound strongly after losses to high-profile opponents. Hermansson aims to re-establish himself as a gatekeeper to the middleweight elite after a lengthy absence.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gregory Rodrigues: -218, Jack Hermansson: 180	Gregory Rodrigues	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Gregory Rodrigues: -3.5 -125, Jack Hermansson: +3.5 -105	Gregory Rodrigues -3.5	★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -145, Under 2.5 rounds: 114	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Gregory Rodrigues -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 24%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Gregory Rodrigues is favored to win due to his higher recent activity, evolving skill set, and pressure striking style. Hermansson's experience and endurance could enable him to last into the later rounds, but the pace and aggression favor Rodrigues.

Predicted Score: Gregory Rodrigues wins by decision or late stoppage (4 rounds estimated)

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Chris Morris vs. Christian Soda Prediction	Chris Morris Win	-300	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues Prediction	Gregory Rodrigues Win	-218	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara	Alexandre Pantoja Win	-230	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +179

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $55.81