Match Analysis: Giovanni Fernandez vs Sam Kelly – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: Cage Warriors 193, Newcastle
Game Overview
The bantamweight bout between Giovanni Fernandez and Sam Kelly is a 3-round main card fight part of Cage Warriors 193. Fernandez (6-4) exhibits a varied finish profile with submissions being his strength, while Kelly (3-3) shows a more balanced but less decisive record. Kelly is favored on the moneyline at -230, with Fernandez as the underdog at +160.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fernandez is in solid recent form with 6 wins mainly via submission (40%) and has a higher activity in finishes. Kelly has a more mixed record at 3-3 and has lost 3 of his last 6, showing inconsistency.
- No recorded previous matchups between Fernandez and Kelly, making this fight a true test of styles without direct prior insight.
- No current injuries reported for either fighter, indicating both are likely at full capacity.
- The fight is held in Newcastle under Cage Warriors promotion, with no significant external conditions or travel disadvantages reported for either fighter.
- Fernandez appears motivated to solidify his standing through impressive finishes, whereas Kelly looks to rebound from recent inconsistent performances.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Giovanni Fernandez: +160, Sam Kelly: -230 | Sam Kelly | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Kelly -1.5 rounds: -140, Fernandez +1.5 rounds: +120 | Sam Kelly -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sam Kelly -14% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Sam Kelly at -14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sam Kelly to win via decision
Predicted Score: Sam Kelly wins by unanimous decision, 30-27