Match Analysis: Connor Hughes vs Gino van Steenis – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Zenith Nantes Metropole, France

Game Overview

The lightweight bout at PFL Europe 3 features England's Connor Hughes (11-2) against Spain's Gino van Steenis (6-1). Hughes is known for his hard-hitting KO power and riding momentum from a recent devastating KO victory. Van Steenis presents a well-rounded skillset and is considered a tough opponent aiming to upset Hughes.

Key Factors to Consider

• Connor Hughes has demonstrated significant striking power with recent KO wins, showing momentum and confidence. Gino van Steenis has an excellent record with only one loss and a balanced fighting style, but less recent knockout hype.
• No recorded previous matchups between Hughes and van Steenis, making this a fresh contest with no direct past outcomes.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into this fight, both are expected to compete at full health.
• Fight takes place in France, neutral ground likely minimizing home advantage. Hughes fights with confidence from a recent knockout while van Steenis shows tactical composure as a technical striker.
• Both fighters are motivated to advance in the PFL Europe lightweight tournament and secure momentum for the $100,000 purse and championship, but Hughes appears slightly more motivated based on recent striking success and crowd momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Connor Hughes: -290, Gino van Steenis: 225	Connor Hughes	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Connor Hughes -1.5: -185, Gino van Steenis +1.5: 155	Connor Hughes -1.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5 Rounds: -140, Under 1.5 Rounds: 110	Under 1.5 Rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Connor Hughes -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Connor Hughes at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Connor Hughes to win on the moneyline

Predicted Score: Connor Hughes wins by 2nd round KO

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Sebastien Di Franco vs. Mark Ewen Prediction	Mark Ewen Win	-310	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Darragh Kelly vs. Bakhtiyar Abdulaev Prediction	Darragh Kelly Win	-650	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Connor Hughes vs. Gino van Steenis Prediction	Connor Hughes Win	-290	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +105

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $41.05

Match Analysis: Decky McAleenan vs Gino van Steenis – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-10
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: SSE Arena, Belfast

Game Overview

This match is part of the PFL Europe 2025 Lightweight Tournament, featuring Decky McAleenan (9-5-1) from Ireland versus Gino van Steenis (5-1) from Spain. Both fighters aim to progress in the tournament, with McAleenan seeking his first European belt for Ireland and van Steenis looking to follow in his brother's footsteps.

Key Factors to Consider

• Decky McAleenan has more professional fights but faces a younger, aggressive opponent in Gino van Steenis, who is driven by his brother’s success.
• There is no recorded head-to-head matchup between these fighters.
• No reported injuries at this time.
• Home advantage could favor McAleenan, but van Steenis's ambition might counterbalance that.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, but McAleenan’s local support could be an additional motivator.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Decky McAleenan: -125, Gino van Steenis: -115	Decky McAleenan	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Decky McAleenan -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Decky McAleenan at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the experience and home advantage, Decky McAleenan might have a slight edge, but Gino van Steenis’s potential for aggression could make this a closely contested match.

Predicted Score: This is a decision-based sport, so predicting a score isn't applicable. However, a closely contested five-round decision is likely.