Match Analysis: Uros Medic vs Gilbert Urbina – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-09
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
Uros Medic and Gilbert Urbina face off at UFC Vegas 109 in a welterweight bout. Medic is the strong favorite based on recent form, statistical combat metrics, and defensive ability.
Key Factors to Consider
- Medic has a 10-3 career record with a high significant strike accuracy (60%) and better strike defense (56%) compared to Urbina's 57% accuracy and 44% defense. Medic absorbs fewer strikes per minute (3.46) than Urbina (4.61), indicating a better defensive profile.
- No direct head-to-head matchups recorded between Medic and Urbina.
- No recent injury reports for either fighter, suggesting both are in good health coming into the fight.
- Fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue with no clear home advantage. Both fighters have equal weight class conditions.
- Medic, as the favorite, is likely motivated to solidify his status with a decisive win. Urbina is considered an underdog, potentially increasing his motivation to upset.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Uros Medic -450 / Gilbert Urbina +350 | Uros Medic | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds +120 / Under 1.5 rounds -150 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Uros Medic -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Uros Medic to win on the moneyline with a fight likely finishing under 1.5 rounds due to his striking accuracy and defensive skills limiting exchanges.
Predicted Score: Uros Medic wins by TKO in Round 2