Match Analysis: Uros Medic vs Gilbert Urbina – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-09
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
Game Overview
The welterweight bout between Uros Medic and Gilbert Urbina is set for UFC Vegas 109 at the UFC Apex. Medic enters with a 10-3 career record and Urbina at 7-4, both fighting at 170 lbs. Medic is a southpaw with a 71" wingspan, while Urbina is an orthodox fighter with a notable 75" wingspan. Both exhibit solid striking abilities but Medic shows better defensive stats.
Key Factors to Consider
- Uros Medic has a stronger record (10-3) compared to Urbina (7-4). Medic connects on 5.49 significant strikes per minute with 60% accuracy and defends 56% of incoming strikes. Urbina lands slightly more strikes per minute (5.61) but with 57% accuracy and defends 44%. Medic absorbs fewer significant strikes per minute (3.46 vs. 4.61).
- No previous fights between Uros Medic and Gilbert Urbina reported, making this their first encounter.
- No current injury reports or physical impairments disclosed for either fighter leading up to the fight.
- Fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas; no unusual external conditions expected. Both fighters have typical motivation levels for a UFC Fight Night bout, with slight edge to Medic due to recent performance consistency.
- Medic aims to improve his slightly better UFC record and is favored by bookmakers, signaling strong confidence. Urbina, younger and slightly taller with longer reach, is motivated to upset the odds and advance his UFC standing.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Uros Medic: -450, Gilbert Urbina: +350 | Uros Medic | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Spread | Medic -1.5 / Urbina +1.5 (typical MMA spread not explicitly listed) | Medic -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: +120, Under 1.5 rounds: -150 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Uros Medic -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 -8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Uros Medic at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Uros Medic is favored to win due to superior defense, striking accuracy, and more consistent UFC-level performances. Prediction favors a win by decision or KO for Medic with about 70% confidence.
Predicted Score: Uros Medic wins by decision or KO inside 2 rounds