Match Analysis: Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: May 17, 2025
- Time: 1:45 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
Game Overview
Gilbert Burns, a former UFC welterweight title challenger, faces off against undefeated Michael Morales in a critical bout. Burns is on a three-fight losing streak, while Morales is riding a five-fight winning streak in the UFC.
Key Factors to Consider
- Burns has faced top-level opponents in recent losses, including Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady, but is struggling with momentum. Morales, meanwhile, is a rising star with a significant youth advantage.
- This is their first meeting, with no prior head-to-head data.
- No reported injuries for either fighter prior to the bout.
- Burns' experience could be an advantage, but his recent performances have been concerning. Morales' youth and undefeated record in the UFC make him a formidable opponent.
- Burns is highly motivated to break his losing streak, while Morales aims to maintain his undefeated record and build towards a title challenge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gilbert Burns: 575, Michael Morales: -850 | Michael Morales | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Spread | Gilbert Burns: +5.5 250, Michael Morales: -5.5 -370 | Michael Morales | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 3.5: 100, Under 3.5: -130 | Under 3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michael Morales 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3.5 24% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Michael Morales is predicted to win via decision, leveraging his youth, undefeated record, and recent form.
Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Michael Morales